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My HUGE investing profits (& why to diversify away from construction… even if business is booming)

October 28, 2018

The short answer includes a few short, simple details:

1) Better profits… are better. (I’ve made a series of enormous profits recently and below I will tell you how much you can benefit from the same methods.)

2) Times change. (What will matter next year is which markets will be booming then, not which markets were hot in prior years.)

3) NAHB’s builder confidence index recently exceeded 2005 levels. (Below, I’ll show you that high levels of builder confidence correlate to long-term declines in real estate sales volume as well as real estate prices. So, the peaking in late 2017 of builder’s confidence predicted the subsequent declines in volume and prices throughout 2018.)

4) US real estate markets are already weakening. (Below, I will provide several statistics showing clear declines in US real estate markets.)

5) Borrowing is what has been driving up real estate values. (Further, borrowing trends have already clearly reversed from the rebound that started ten years ago.)

6) The final reason to diversify away from the construction industry is because I recommend it. (Why you should you care about what I say? One big reason is that I published clear forecasts of the prior declines in global prices of real estate and stock prices, plus of the spike up in global fuel prices. In fact, I also published clear warnings in late September of 2018 of the large declines in global stock prices that have happened in the subsequent weeks. By the way, my prior awareness of the very high probability of big drops in US stock prices is a big part of how I recently made triple-digit profits in just a few weeks. See below for details.)

 

1) Better profits… are better.

From 10/3 to 10/27, I traded two of my own brokerage accounts in two very different ways. While the overall US stock market dropped by 10%, my larger account went up by 7.5%. Further, my smaller account went up by over FIVE HUNDRED PERCENT.

So, if better profits are better, then why didn’t I use all of my funds for the method that profited hundreds of percent in a few weeks? Because there was only a high probability that my forecasts were accurate, not absolute certainty. Plus, I promised my wife that in the account with the larger starting balance, I would trade very conservatively with a relatively modest target of annual profits that exceed our highest interest rates in our credit card (as in over 20% per year).

How am I doing so far? If we take my gains on the conservatively-traded account for the last 24 calendar days and then for simplicity call that “one full month,” what would eleven more months like that produce? Multiplying 12 months by 7.5 percent per month results in a total of 84 percent gains per year (without even re-investing any of the profits). Again, those totals also are ignoring the recent gains of over 500% in my other account.

Will I repeat those exact profit levels in future months? Actually, I plan to “stay in cash” during any time periods that my forecasting methods do not clearly identify a “good bet.” So, while I might have occasional months in the future as good as this one of October 2018, I expect them to be rare.

I have had more profitable months as an investor at least twice: in May of 2006 and October of 2002. However, market indicators are not usually SO easy to interpret as they were by late September of 2018.

Will I go in to detail about my forecasting methods? Actually, I would prefer to keep some of the details private.

However, more importantly for you, I can provide you the profits produced by my methods of forecasting and trading. The simplest way to do so is within your own private brokerage account (including an IRA) using a form that most brokerages call an “assignment of an authorized trader” (or a similar label). That is basically a “limited power of attorney” form that allows you to give me a dedicated login ID and password for executing whatever types of trades you authorize.

2) Times change.

To keep this brief, I will emphasize that you don’t need to understand any of the details about the fact that “times change.” Myself and MANY other published analysts do value some rather basic principles that we use to consistently forecast changes that produce huge profits for us and huge losses for mainstream investors.

We focus on statistics that mainstream investors not only tend to ignore, but sometimes even ridicule. Back in 2005 or 2006, I was sometimes startled by the anxious desperation of many mainstream investors to rationalize their dismissals of correlations that I considered simple and clear. Eventually, it is not a surprise to witness the latest “addictions” to the popular pre-existing biases.

Basically, if you’d like to read any of my publications starting in early 2003 that clearly predicted all of the major changes in the global economy that happened from 2005-2009, let me know. I can send you some links.

I can send you a publication from 2005 clearly showing that “the latest data” on real estate markets had already confirmed the forecasts of an eventual decline that I had been making for years. I can also send you a publication from early 2009 (within days prior to the rebound in US stocks) clearly forecasting that rebound.

I even have a video from late 2006 in which I directly reference the mortgage crisis that manifested several months later and led to the bankruptcy of several prominent financial institutions in the US and elsewhere. Here is a short section:

“When the credit market shifts, the real estate market shifts…. There is so much exposure amongst lenders into real estate [lending]… [that] when the real estate market declines… that actually greatly affects [mortgage lenders’] capacity to extend credit [as in more loans]. So… when their real estate notes [the mortgage debts owed to them] are looking less valuable… banks can collapse.”

In other words, instead of being desperately aggressive about extending new loans with unsustainable gimmicks like “1% down payments,” banks shift focus. They suddenly shift from lending out cash as fast as it comes in… to tightening their lending standards. Why? They get desperate to pay back the massive debts that THEY owe.

3) NAHB’s builder confidence index recently exceeded 2005 levels.

I’ll start with the chart showing that late 2017 levels were higher than the prior peak in 2005. Then, I’ll show some relevant correlations.

Also, I assume that you already are familiar with changes to your own local or regional market for construction and remodeling projects that manifested a little over 10 years ago. Today, I’m not going to focus on exactly why I expect the near future of US real estate markets to be much worse than that shift (and perhaps even as bad as what has been happening in Japan since 1990). For now though, let’s start with a single statistic that could cause us concern for something at least as bad in the US for contractors in general:

From 2005 to 2010, sales of NEW homes in the US fell nearly 80%. Although volume has more than doubled since 2010, it is down about 20% since the peak in late 2017. Further, there is a clear correlation between sales volume and NAHB’s index of builder confidence in the US housing market.

From 2005 to 2010, sales of USED homes in the US fell over 50%. Although volume rose by more than 50% since the 2010 low, it is down about 10% since the peak in late 2017. Further, there is once again a clear correlation between sales volume and NAHB’s index of builder confidence in the US housing market.

Finally, this next one is really the key chart. What do you notice about the black line and the blue line in 2005 & 2006? Do you see how the blue line peaks and falls about one year prior to the black line?

Also, do you see that the blue line not only recently exceeded the prior peak in 2005, but has been dropping for the first 3 quarters of 2018? What will happen next with the black line (which tracks PRICES of real estate in the US)?

That line is a weighted average including both average prices for used homes as well as average prices of new homes (which are currently around 10% of all residential purchases). Prices of USED homes are still rising. However, average prices of NEW home purchases in the US overall are actually down 3.5% from September of 2017 to September of 2017. Do you dare to guess when the last time was that prices of new homes in the US fell while prices of used homes rose?

4) US real estate markets are already weakening.

I will focus only on a few regions of the US that have done worse than most in the last year. In Southern California, sales of existing single-family homes are down 17.6% from a year ago. In the Northeast US, new home sales are down 51.3% from a year ago. For high-end residential real estate in Manhattan (over $10 million), sales volume is down 39% in the last year and prices are down 9% (so far).

As we saw in the charts above, drops in sales volume predictably leads to prices coming down. In other words, if sales volume continues to drop further and further, we can expect prices to follow.

Below is a chart of an index of the stock prices of the US housing sector. In 2005, I mentioned this index in a publication of mine saying that it’s decline from July of 2015 to September of that year (when I wrote that article) appeared to me to “validate” the forecasts I had been making of an eventual decline in US real estate lending, sales volume, and prices. (In the same article, I also published data from one specific region in the US where real estate markets had already significantly slowed down: Phoenix Arizona).

I won’t go on and on with this topic, although I will note that real estate markets have not just begun to weaken in the US, but in Canada as well as on several other continents. For many decades at least, the US economy has been debt-driven, rather than production-driven. Further, the US is not alone in that regard. As the next waves of global credit crisis accelerate in to a much bigger panic than that of 2007 (if my analysis is accurate), then the industry that I expect to be most affected by that decline is the construction industry.

It benefited the most from the expansion of the “credit bubble.” It will likely suffer the worst from a reversal.

Further, as the next global credit crisis accelerates, global consumption of fossil fuels may plunge (as it did in 2008). With the US once again leading the world in the extraction of crude oil, a major decline in global fuel consumption will potentially produce the most detriment to the economy of the US (relative to other countries). Besides the technology sector, the fossil fuel sector (in my assessment) has really been the only other sector in the US that has been competitive on a global scale. Alas, even the technology sector in the US is heavily-reliant on… what else would it be: borrowing.

5) Borrowing is what has been driving up real estate values.

In this October 17, 2018 press release, the Mortgage Bankers Association in the US published data in which they clearly list that they track interest rates for 5 different types of mortgages. For 4 out of those 5, interest rates have reached their highest levels since 2011.

https://www.mba.org/2018-press-releases/october/mortgage-applications-decline-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey-x240776

Here are some comment’s from a press release by the same organization from July of 2018:

“Mortgage refinance activity has declined through 2018 as rates have increased, reducing the incentive for borrowers to refinance…. MBA’s refinance index averaged 1,013 in June, the lowest monthly average since December 2000. The weekly index value dropped below 1,000 in three of the past six weeks, a level that it has not gone below since December 2000 as well.”

Source: https://www.mba.org/publications/insights/archive/mba-insights-archive/2018/mba-chart-of-the-week-refinance-index-and-30-year-fixed-rates

Here is a chart of the refinance index (in blue) and the average interest rate on 30 year mortgages in the US. Note that time after time in the last 18 years, the blue line has shot up just before a rise in the orange line:

That means that when homeowners rush to refinance at low rates, that increased demand for loans is precisely what DRIVES up rates. From all of 2008 to 2012, the blue line was above the 2,000 level (see left axis for the 2,000 level). In the latter portion of that period, the refinance index was above 4,000 for almost 12 straight months.

When has that happened before? Only once in the last two decades: 2002.

Those brief “booms” in refinancing are great for builders in the short-term. However, increased demand for refi loans is a big part of what drives up interest rates. Those rising interest rates eventually can trigger major declines in borrowing, leading to declines in sales volume. When sales volume plunges, what happens eventually to prices?

FYI, for those that are curious how the private Federal Reserve Bank alters interest rates for US lending markets, here is the short version of what you would find if you looked at many decades of data. They almost always change their rates to FOLLOW the activity of private borrowers and private lenders (including as reflected in the open-market interest rates for US treasury bonds).

In other words, when demand for loans rises (relative to supply), then loans in general get more expensive (as in interest rates increase). Then, in RESPONSE to that, the Federal Reserve will alter the lending rates that they charge when lending money to banks (AKA the “prime rate”).

6) The final reason to diversify away from the construction industry is because I recommend it.

When I say “diversify away from” it, I simply mean to begin investing a portion of your net worth toward opportunities that (based on obvious statistical correlations) have a better potential for future profit than the construction industry in the US currently does. As I noted above, I can provide you access to the kinds of the profits that I have been producing with my methods of forecasting and investing. (Again, the profits since 10/3 have been, for each of the two strategies I have used, over 500% and exactly 7.5%.)

While I have refined my methods in the last 16 years, even the most obvious forecasts that I began making in 2003 have consistently preceded every major change in global markets since then: the shifts in credit markets worldwide, the shifts in fuel prices worldwide, and the shifts in overall stock prices worldwide. While I did not mention it until now, a portion of my recent profits were from trading commodities, not just “shorting” US stocks.

So, I’m not fixated on a specific market. I am not “emotionally invested” in any particular market (or forecast). Again, why didn’t I invest 100% of my assets in to the strategies that generated profits of over 500% in the last few weeks? Because I knew that I was only dealing with a very high probability of profit from that strategy, not absolute certainty.

I am certainly continuing to generate leads for construction and remodeling projects as well. I’m simply shifting my focus to diversify away from the construction industry to invest in opportunities that I perceive to be far more lucrative and safe. For more information on how you can benefit from my analysis and profitable trades, contact me today.

http://allycm.com

Economic crisis: great for prudent traders & awful for real estate investors

April 19, 2018

A friend recently posted this on facebook:

A couple people have told me that the market is going to collapse in a year or so, at least the housing market. I’m wondering if anyone has any thoughts or professional opinions about this?

I replied (and then a short private exchange began). Here was my public reply:

A lot of statistics and data indicate the potential for a major downturn in global credit markets, which tends to “blow out” prices in markets like stocks, real estate, and even gold and gasoline etc….

In late 2005, I published this article forecasting a major downturn in the global economy including in stock prices. My favorite section is me “tearing apart” the recent analysis of a PhD who was the chief investment strategist of Wells Fargo. He was “very wrong,” and yet despite his apparent incompetence remained in that job for another decade at least (as of the last time I checked).

https://jrfibonacci.wordpress.com/2015/10/31/another-investment-forecast-of-mine-from-late-2015/

Starting in early 2003, I published forecasts of the emerging real estate decline (which started in the 1990s in Japan and had spread to Europe by 2003). By mid-2005, I published a few “confirmation” articles showing that two regional markets in the US were already starting the crash that eventually spread throughout almost the entire US. Those two regions were Phoenix and Las Vegas.

Expanding beyond the topic of real estate, in 2004, my publications focused on global oil markets as a primary trigger that would eventually cause a major shift in the global economy. Within a few years, it cost over $11 to get a gallon of gasoline in parts of the UK and Germany. And soon, the “dominoes” that I said would fall in sequence did in fact fall just as I had proposed.

https://jrfibonacci.wordpress.com/2011/01/05/the-dominoil-effect/

So those were my public comments, which that facebook friend (who I will call “FBF”) and a few others so far have “liked.” Here is the private exchange that followed (with slight censoring of her comments).

FBF wrote:

Hello, honored to have such an intelligent friend on Facebook!

If you are ready and willing, I would like to ask a little bit of advice.

JR replied with a “thumbs up.”

FBF continued:

OK then I will ask… I own a house in [a particular location] where lots of yuppies like to move… It’s a rental property….

The real estate prices are consistently going up at a very fast rate. I dislike being a landlord, but I can tolerate it.

A bunch of people have told me that I should sell my house this spring due to the bubble probably bursting soon. Others have told me that one should hold onto real estate during economic crisis is… Do you have any suggestions? [She then references her other income from her profession.]

JR replied:

Okay! First, I recommend targeting strategies with smooth, stable gains- ideally, with some calculated diversification.

For instance, a couple of months ago, I wrote a short report on two unrelated systems that have been producing annualized gains of 110% and 220%.

https://jrfibonacci.wordpress.com/2018/02/24/2-investing-systems-producing-annual-gains-of-220-and-110/

Next, my trading analysis will TARGET the forecasting of economic crisis because a crisis will present the most lucrative opportunities BY FAR.

Huge amounts of wealth transfer very rapidly in a crash. In a manic bubble, the transfer of wealth toward prudent investors will generally be much much slower, since so many people will be on the “receiving ends” of benefiting from the bubble.

Last, as for the stability of real estate, in a deflating of credit markets (which is the main kind of economic crisis), it is far better to own cash during a deflation than to own real estate. A few examples include the crash of Japan’s real estate market in the 1990s (which almost 30 years later has still not recovered), plus Phoenix, where prices rapidly fell [almost] 50% on average, and Las Vegas where prices rapidly fell 60%.

This image from early 2012 shows the rapid 60% price decline in Las Vegas: https://jrfibonacci.files.wordpress.com/2012/05/re-prices-las-vegas.png?w=450&h=248

Here is the same timeframe for the 48% decline in the Phoenix area:

https://jrfibonacci.files.wordpress.com/2012/05/re-prices-phoenix.png?w=450&h=259

FBF replied:

with a graphic icon saying “thank u” and a cute teddy bear.

JR continued:

So, those are my main “summary comments” for you. Also, if your main “investing strategy” is concentrated in a single faraway unit of real estate, that could be very bad during a deflation. (By the way, I was briefly a landlord for a home in [a certain place familiar to FBF] and that “did not go very well.”)

I could say more about WHY owning real estate can be SO bad during a major deflation, but for sake of brevity, I will simply say “other things would be much better and why not focus on them instead?”

[FBF replied with a thumbs up]

Also, to be clear, I am sharing this info with you with the expectation that you will be open to using my services for wealth management. I do not charge anything except a portion of the gains (as in no administrative fees or management fees and generally no set-up fees). My main question for you now is “how soon would like for us to take a few minutes to explore the details?”

If you’d like to read more at any time, here are my “official” promotional pages, which are entirely optional for you to read:

http://allycm.com/services-for-investors.php

 

On condemnations of people who “hate us for being alive”

March 1, 2018

R.M. (Not quite the right initials) shared this image / meme:

(Note that the below exchange contains some “jargon,” as in words and phrases that are being used in a somewhat unusual way … ways which may seem weird or even cryptic to most readers, but that have very specific meanings to some people in the interaction.)

 

K.C. wrote:

Personally I can’t stand this current generation AS A WHOLE but I do agree with them something needs to be done. I am a gun owner but it is absolutely unacceptable to have shootouts or just a flat out ambush in school. These kids absolutely have the right to go to school and not fear for their lives. On that I support them.

 

J.R. wrote:

If someone begins with the idea that any questioning of them or their statements is by default “hate,” then perhaps they have no interest in an exchange of experiences or ideas.

 

 

R.M. wrote:

Really? Have you been following what has been happening? What the people who disagree with these students have actually been saying and doing? Listening is not about ethereal and esoteric statements from the stands.

 

 

J.R. wrote:

If there is a motivation to find one or more events to classify as “hateful,” then that can be done. Then, those cases can be focused on exclusively.

Do I know what “everyone” has said or done? No, and neither do you.

If you do not want to know what I have said or might say, I understand and accept that. Listening is a “current-moment phenomenon”, like it is either right here in this exchange or not.

 

 

R.M. wrote:

 

J R, where did I use the word “everyone”? These students are on the court taking on an issue where their opposition is saying and doing things that would likely be equated to hate.

And I assert that everything is a current moment phenomenon. Including memories of the past and predictions of the future.

 

J.R. wrote:

You did not use the word everyone until I did, right? So, obviously I was not quoting you.

I used quotation marks with the intention to suggest that sweeping generalizations (like the word “everyone”) are generally imprecise. If that was not clear to you already, so be it.

So, if it is useful in the promotion of your selected cause to focus on a portion of “our opposition” that is the easiest for you to equate with hate, I respect that position. I also respect the existence of **upsets and rackets and blind spots** (etc).   [note- that was some of the jargon right there, though the basic idea here is probably rather clear]

 

If I presume that “you clearly hate me,” then that could alter how I relate to your words. I might find evidence to support my position “everywhere.”

 

R.M. wrote:

J R … thank you for your engagement with this post that I shared that was created by someone else. I say that although I have moments of anger that could be described as BEING hateful, they pass quickly and I have created for myself that I hate no one. I also say that hate is a soul killer of those who say or have a hateful way of being.

 

Next, I do not understand what you’re saying. I respect it, I just don’t understand. Probably nothing to do with you (and all in how your words are occuring to me).

That’s it, that’s all I’m saying. I’m not generalizing and referring to some nebulus “everyone”. I am talking about, and as I suspect she is also, a small group of people many would describe as fanatical about guns.

What I see the meme is intending to say (how it occurs to me), is that she is talking about the people who have a very strong position and POV that is in support of guns and that they have said things and taken actions that would occur to most people as being hateful.

 

 

J.R. wrote:

You’re welcome. The kind of grief / grievance that I associate with “they hate us for being alive… for speaking” is quite extreme.

Can I respect and appreciate extremes of grief? Sure.

Someone can say that I hate them for being alive and I might presume that “it is simply the emotion talking- maybe some hatred- definitely some grief.” However, the extremes of someone’s emotion or passion does not establish much about their comprehension of related issues.

As for fanaticism, I might describe many people as fanatical about guns- with a variety of very different positions all presented in a way that I might call fanatical. Again, I can respect that.

 

2 investing systems producing annual gains of 220% and 110%.

February 24, 2018

A few weeks ago, I presented a chart that showed 4 very profitable trading systems together. Today, let’s simplify a bit and just look at 2 of them (including the latest 2 weeks of performance data).

Further down the page, I show the same charts much larger. You can read the captions in the larger versions. For now, just notice that the shapes of the up-sloping trends are quite different.

So, these two charts show the exact same time frame (6 months). You can see that the shapes of the two charts are totally distinct- no correlation. That is because the systems have totally different strategies (and the trades cover totally different timeframes in totally different markets/ investiment instruments).

While it would be fine to just trade either of thee two alone, my comments a few weeks ago focused on combining multiple systems to reduce risk by increasing the smoothness/flatness of the “growth curve.”
So, I won’t repeat much about why I like that kind of “targeted diversification.” Basically, I am open to using both systems together to produce gains that are far greater than those of the lesser of the two systems, but much smoother/steadier than the more lucrative system alone.

The more lucrative one trades exactly one stock index, the US DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average of 30 companies). However, it is not a long-term “buy and hold/ buy and hope” system like most mutual fund investors are familiar with. It buys certain dips and sells, on average, 18 days later at a large profit. Honestly, I would prefer a system that covered a larger variety of markets. However, the performace of this system is now up to over 200% gains per year. I certainly do like that.

The “lesser one” only trades instruments that are”volality ETFs” (like VXX, XIV, SVXY). That is already “unfamiliar territory” for most people. These positions are not purchases of stocks or bonds or commodities or currencies, which is actually something that I really LIKE this system (because it is focusing on a type of investment that is totally off of the radar of mainstream “herd” investors).

 

So, why am I sharing this info? I assume that most investors are getting results that are much less lucrative and much less safe than these systems. I know that systems like this exist and I know how to find them and use them. I am willing to combine my motivation and expertise with the resources (assets) of other people to mutually benefit all of us.

If you are interested in exploring this opportunity, let me know. As I noted in prior weeks, whatever precautions someone is willing to invest in (like by involving CPAs or lawyers), I am fine with that.

 

 

 

Does “mainstream culture” teach “naive distrust”… or “naive trust?”

February 18, 2018
MH (whom I understand to be a legal immigrant from the UK to the US) wrote:
Which one describes America:
1) an indoctrinated distrust of “others”
2) [several other options that JR is omitting]
JR replied:
Ultimately, America is just a label (a linguistic “identity”). People can argue over that label if they like.
More important (to me) than labels is experience. Someone can attempt to argue with me about my experience, though that may just be them attempting to suppress it (like in order for them to “hold it together” – to abruptly silence any commentary that they fear would trigger explosions of terror or shame for them).
In our midst, there is a culture that programs massive amounts of insecurity and peer pressure (which sets up cognitive dissonance and many other “problems”). There is pressure toward blind obedience and trust.

That pressure includes pressure about conceptual ideals of what should be or what should not be, plus a rigidity that “our (mass-programmed) ideals are the only valid ideals.” Thus, our “meta-ideal” about our other ideals is that “our ideals are holy and sacred and should NEVER be questioned or explored or modified.” (But any other ideals besides “ours” should blindly submit to / evolve to ours- instantly).

Along with the “flight *toward blind trust of authorities” is a flight *from a contrasting potential. Why flight/ fleeing? Again, the foundation is peer pressure, intimidation, programmed social anxiety, or terror / panic. So, there is constant stress plus “fleeing” as the only socially-approved response.

And while it is more obvious what we are programmed to flee toward (blind trust in some external authority), it may be more important what we are programmed to flee from, which is accountability. However, the topic of accountability is so taboo that most people may have rather little familiarity with what I mean by that.

To clarify, I do not mean guilt. Guilt is hugely promoted- individual guilt for a country’s practices or history, guilt for some genetic or racial ancestry, guilt for being male or female etc…. For example, (deceptive) guilt-tripping was used to pressure (harass / bully) the US in to invading Europe (multiple times).
Also, guilt about what I personally did or did not do is NOT the same as regret or accountability. Guilt is about the future more than about the past.

Guilt is a type of fear or distress or hysteria about potential future social punishments for past actions. Regret is much less terrifying- just disappointment about the results that have already been produced.

Disappointment plus motivation equals motivation. In other words, disappointment about the past is just part of the learning process. It just triggers slowing down and exploring new courses of action. It does NOT trigger despair- which guilt often does.
In contrast, guilt cripples people. It leads to despair or depression- which are intense states of anxiety. Mere regret does not involve anxiety or hysteria.
So, Accountability is related to intelligence. Accountability includes being aware of preferences and values, then awareness of patterns of action related to cultivating what is valued (and avoiding or reducing contrasting potentials). Ultimately, accountability might just be “speaking intelligently about values and actions.”
I mention speaking because accountability is definitely related to what we say, like promises to produce a result, to take certain actions or not to take others, and so on. It is about communication.
But communicating responsibly, accountably, and intelligently is a massive taboo. Why? Because communicating like that can bring to light the context of social pressure, the fanaticism(s) of the mainstream herd, the roots of that fanaticism, and the “lives of quiet desperation (suppressed insecurity)” that we have led and witnessed in our midst, plus the massive GRIEF that we have been programmed and intimidated in to suppressing and denying (as well as fury or rage etc).
Last, the taboo on accountability is evident in the culture of blame (and resentment, animosity, hatred, anti-hatred hatred, etc). Fleeing from accountability, we may blame “the authorities” (that we blindly and naively trusted). What benefit does that provide us?
Or, we blame “that one group that is ruining everything and preventing paradise on earth.” Or, we blame that one person- ooo yes one of everyone’s favorite resentment: “the one who betrayed / abandoned / ruined me.”
Of course, we may frequently replace the last “one big traitor” with the latest. Then we can say things like “all women cannot be trusted” or “all men cannot be trusted.”
What is under all of that? “Mountains” Of Grief. Terror about displaying or releasing that grief. Why? Expectation of a massive concentration of social animosity / hatred / ridicule as “punishment”.
There is Suppression of aggression (through intimidation/ threats of aggression/ organized government coercion). It is the classic “dense plantation” of the serfs all crammed together in cities.
The rulers take 40% (or whatever) of the earnings of the serfs. The serfs – in many cases – fight amongst themselves over the crumbs that the rulers scatter amongst them occasionally.
Could we resent the rulers for such actions? Sure, but there is no benefit (or accountability / integrity) in such “glorious resentments.” There is only vanity (as in a coping mechanism for the distress that might be consistently ineffective / frustrating).

 

MH replied: 

I love the way your mind works, man!

 

JR added:
As a side note, almost all of what I wrote above in regard to “culture” is really about the indoctrination rituals of mainstream public education. While mass media and video games etc are not insignificant, they are not enforced with legal coercion like government-regulated schools are.
MH added:
 Absolutely.

On an “isolated case” of organized dishonesty in the NFL

February 16, 2018

 

DB asked: 

“Isn’t conspiracy theoryism just another form of deity (god) worship? [Is it] yet another way for us to put the blame for the state of the world on some secret hidden thing….”

(DB is a member of “my” private group on facebook and that is where the above comment was posted.)

 

JR replies:

The foundation of “blame” begins with a concept of how something should be or should not be (and the “something” can be “the world” or a group or a person). Such linguistic categorizations are common and familiar, though they are ultimately entirely linguistic.

To me, it is a simple historical fact that many well-publicized “memes” include the “worship” of ideals not just as linguistic ideals (as in preferences or speculations), but as idols (as in unquestionable justifications to argue, ridicule, censor, etc). Ironically, a meme could say “that other meme should not be like that” or even “memes should not exist and also this meme is not a meme.”

Further, there are people with 200 Facebook friends or 2000, plus sponsored posts and so on. Why do I mention that? Because the “reach” of people (or groups) varies. Some have more reach than others, right?

That is not a theory. That is a claim, yes, though one that is rather plain and simple to assess for accuracy.

And if I say that, in a certain football game, the Eagles conspired among themselves to secretly deceive the Patriots in order to execute a trick play, that is about a conspiracy, right? However, not all conspiracies are secret in the general sense. The secret is mostly important from when the deception is planned to when it is executed (from the huddle to the snap).

The fact of the conspiracy itself may or may not be secret. (Disinformation and distraction are related issues though I don’t focus on them much here). So, even conspiracies like the US government secretly testing biological weapons on soldiers and civilians is something openly admitted later by the involved agencies and bureaucrats.

(MUCH later- like not until long after the specific programs were completed… and perhaps after decades of direct denials.)

So, *should* conspiracies exist or not? They might exist. That is all.

Dec 13, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Sam Bradford (7) fakes a hand off to running back Darren Sproles (43) during the second half against the Buffalo Bills. The Eagles won 23-20. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Does the media KNOW that organized dishonesty (including as many as SEVEN fake handoffs last season alone) are a standard part of NFL games? There is a big controversy being stirred up by a few isolated people (who are all troubled white male teenagers who support Trump and yet are all fans of Jewish rap stars THE BEASTIE BOYS) who seek attention by making a bunch of hysterical accusations about an alleged “high frequency of FAKE handoffs.” Don’t fall for their slander strategy!

Here is the moral question at the root of it all. Should any football player plan to intentionally fake going one way but then go another (or plan to FAKE a handoff but then intentionally keep the ball)? NO! Obviously, it would be dishonest and immoral and evil and sinful. However, deception and secrecy might exist too.

What about INTENTIONAL illegal acts of “illegal holding” to stop another player that is expected to otherwise score a touchdown or very large gain? Would a player ever eagerly “give up a 10-yard penalty” to prevent a 30-yard gain? In fact, would their teammates and coach and fans be MAD at them for FAILING to intentionally commit an ILLEGAL foul in order to better advance the interests of the team?


Above, we see the owner of a USFL football team (on the right) next to the actor who pretended to be The Incredible Hulk in a 1970s TV show, but actually was not REALLY all that incredible.

While I am on the topic of a group in which organized deception is not only allowed but compulsory, how prevalent is it? Note that the above examples CANNOT apply to lawyers for the mafia or government officials or corporate accountants at Enron or GE, but ONLY to sports. For instance, to be part of the KGB, you must show that your DNA is angelic and you are a confirmed saint (certified by the Superior General of the Order of the Sovereign Knights of Malta, who are very honest people). Same thing for CNN. Same thing for the DNC and the LDS and the FBI.

The NFL is the only exception. Those people are NOT EVEN CERTIFIED AS ANGELIC SAINTS!?!?! It is truly an outrage, right?

Sure, maybe the teams that I do not like will occasionally use dishonesty. However, other teams are not like that. Clearly, whenever someone is on a team with a name like “The Saints” (or, in baseball, “The Angels”), then what other PROOF do you need?

Now that we are clear on how RARE deception is, let’s focus more on the example of that one isolated case of an NFL player that was deceptive and dishonest by faking a handoff while actually keeping the ball. First, how do I know that it is an isolated case?

Again, that kind of activity would be deceptive (and I do not like deception although I DO like the NFL), therefore that must be an isolated case. See how easy that was?

Allegations that some teams repeatedly plan and practice fake handoffs are offensive to me, proving that the accusers MUST be guilty of something- as in literally anything that allows me to reflexively dismiss their assertions. My favorite team would NEVER do that because I am terrified and anxious, so I rigidly present myself as an HONEST person (not that other kind of person, because obviously there are those two totally different kinds of people and no gray area in between and no switching sides or trading between any non-Saintly teams and my team: the New Orleans Angels of the Holy Inquisition).

After that one isolated case of a fake handoff  by that one team that one time in the 3rd quarter of game 6 of the 2014 season, how can his teammates ever again trust such a deceptive person? Further, after a person has clearly conspired with his team against the other team, how can that player’s spouse trust that player with ANYTHING? How can their kids respect or trust that person who is established as a FRAUD?

Why? Because conspiracy and deception are common, everyday realities.

They can be key features of highly effective strategies. In fact, if someone on a team was not good at keeping secrets or deceiving others, they might be benched or fired or traded. (Again, all of this ONLY applies to the NFC and not the AFC or the NBA or the KGB or the DNC or CNN.)

There may be psychological resistance to some “theories” – like because of an individual’s emotional distress in relation to a specific claim (hysteria). It is just like a spouse may be dismissive of the idea that their mate has a certain history or tendency (or like a parent who responds to a reported incident by saying “my child does not behave like that!?!?).

So, is there at least one ORGANIZED conspiracy to present certain ideas about how the world should be or should not be? There might be.

Is there at least one organized conspiracy to present certain ideas about “how the world is?” Absolutely not because of these two obvious reasons: first that would be impossible and third people are not that naive and ninth reverse psychology cannot exist because language is the almighty god and directly forbids it.

Anyway, this all reminds me of back when I was a pro wrestler. The Hulkster and I were debating a few things. We agreed that it was impossible for someone to get so mad that they turn green and start behaving in ways that are not normal for them. Obviously, right?

However, there was some controversy between us about conspiracies. Was it was possible that actors and producers and screenplay writers would get together to conspire to all pretend to be other people (like repeating lines from the same script and pretending to be opponents)?

Then the Hulkster said “listen up, Mean Gene, that is just wrong! People totally should not do that. The KGB and CIA did not ever cooperate. Both claimed to be the enemy of the other, right? So that’s proof right there! Anyway, if the Undertaker knows what is good for him, he will stop saying insulting things about the activities of my cousin’s government’s alleged program to use crisis actors to make the next Star Wars movie. If he does not shut his damn mouth, then I am going to shut it for him at next Sunday’s pay-per-view event!?!?”

DB replied:

Bonus points for references to the Eagles and pro wrestling (even though [my] elder child has moved on from actual interest in wrestling to personal fandom of particular people). She also now sees the Illuminati in most things…. Illuminati confirmation…..

On the recent plunge in stock prices (in Europe, then Asia, & soon the US)

February 9, 2018

Yesterday, someone asked me about my thoughts on the recent plunge in US stock market prices. First, I know a few forecasting systems that anticipated a sharp sell-off (like through applying very simple correlations as well as “technical analysis” of price trends, volume trends, etc). That was not just for US stocks either- since the data for stock markets across Asia and Europe tend to correlate very highly with the data for US stocks.

Second, as for global markets, my sense is that most people focusing on mainstream news in the US are not aware of the global nature of many trends. In fact, if we look at the last 3 months of price trends for the US vs Europe vs Asia, we find that it was in Europe (the black line below) that the first peak and decline happened.


The blue line (which is a stock index covering many parts of Asia) peaked the following day in January. Then, a few days later was when stock prices in the US peaked.

In other words, prices in the US did not start a trend that was followed in other parts of the planet. In this case, it is very clear that US price trends shifted a few days AFTER the trend had already changed in other parts of the world.

 

So, before I go in to my comments on the “very big picture” of a few basics of global economic conditions, I also want to note that what will be much more valuable for most people (than reading what is below) is simply to find a safe, lucrative investment strategy. Fortunately, I have been writing about several in recent weeks and my latest publication (showing steady gains not just of over 100% per year, but MUCH higher than that) can be accessed here:

https://jrfibonacci.wordpress.com/2018/02/09/stable-investment-gains-not-of-2-digit-percentages-per-year-but-3-and-even-4/

 

Next, when I want to educate someone on the reality of global economic trends, there are a variety of approaches that I can take. I could talk about the simple demographics of aging baby boomers in places like the US, Europe, and Japan. As they retire and shift their assets from stocks to bonds (and then to cash), if the younger generations are not keeping pace by buying stocks as fast as the retirees are selling them, that produces declines in prices.

But when I do that, it is because I am using “kid gloves.” I am sticking with only the least controversial and simplest points. Frankly, I get bored of that within a few paragraphs. (Sure, my commentary might much more valuable to you than free TV news analysis or even very expensive college courses, but if that is your interest then you are welcome to offer me money for my time.)

Instead, what I wrote below is “not holding anything back.” Even though parts of it are uncontroversial, that is just me “setting up the good stuff.”

What do I mean by that? When people think very intelligently (like a detective, a lawyer, or a spy), they can avoid the unexamined presumptions and logical fallacies that confuse and distract “the mainstream herd” of uninformed investors.

For instance, lawyers are clear that when an accounting firm presents data, there could be errors in that data or even outright fraud. The reality of intentional systematic fraud is very familiar to certain lawyers. There is an automatic skepticism of all CLAIMS.

Legal cases are all about presenting claims and advancing them. The best lawyers recognize that all verbal claims are inherently just assertions or projections.

Lawyers know that there are published standards for accounting and in contrast there are the wide variety of practices actually used by accounting professionals worldwide. Some companies are widely known to frequently break accounting rules that result in million dollar fines but billion dollar profits. Some accounting firms (or law firms) are even known as the best ones for “navigating” such strategies.

For instance, it is widely known by historical scholars that the HSBC bank (HongKong-Shanghai Banking Corporation) was set up for the specific purpose of laundering the drug money of the British Crown. In the late 1700s and early 1800s, the UK repeatedly invaded China to keep the Chinese from effectively criminalizing the importation of British opium (which was trafficked from the British possession of India). HSBC emerged from all that.

So, if a branch of that bank (or a bank of another name that HSBC buys out and controls) is accused of being involved with laundering money for CIA drug trafficking (or selling black-market uranium or illegal weapons), some lawyers would know that every claim or denial made by anyone is literally just a claim. Maybe any particular claim is generally accurate, maybe sincere, maybe wildly deceptive, etc…..

Even if an HSBC official admits to one isolated case of “misconduct” (and then presents a specific scapegoat), some legal minds would ask “is that confession designed as a distraction from something else?” Some lawyers have read the court papers for a variety of class-action suits for widespread fraud by many major banks.

So, let’s back off of that kind of complexity for now. Let’s focus instead on a very basic issue of accounting: lenders have limits to the amount of loans that they can extend (or else they could approve every application for an unlimited credit line).

 

To me, when considering the present state of global economics, it is relevant to understand that there is a global “credit bubble.” Also, that bubble is more extreme in the US than in most places (with massive borrowing here by barely-solvent individuals, corporations, and of course the US government).

In other words, we can compare different regions in regard to debt levels, income levels (or GDP), and net worth approximations. Since massive amounts of transactions in the US are financed with borrowed funds (especially with real estate loans and car loans), the vast majority of people regularly dumping money in to mutual funds (or bitcoin) have negative net worths. There are contrasting historical periods when most investors were not borrowing to invest (and had positive net worths). Further, the extent to which any particular country’s stock market or real estate market is based on a bubble of credit will vary from place to place.

Modern credit markets are an unprecedented “experiment.” Things like “zero down mortgages” (or “cash back at closing”) simply are not available in much of the world- and they are a temporary phenomenon here in the US that can come and go.

When lenders face a cash crunch, they will not even be offering “ridiculous” financing terms to people with great credit and collateral. Just like I cannot lend you a million dollars that I do not have, the same basic issue applies to institutional lenders. They monitor creditworthiness because they want to prioritize their loans toward borrowers that they assess to be “the best risks.”

While the global banking system has many layers, a lot of the lending ultimately is at the discretion of very big players, like the Jesuit-controlled Vatican, the Rothschilds, and so on.  As long as they control lending markets and as long as most governments are operating on the edge of insolvency, then governments are “stuck” meeting the demands of the lenders in order to continue borrowing to cover prior debts.

That means that if the big lenders want the US military to invade Israel or Iran (etc), that is very likely to happen. When the European bankers wanted the US to invade Europe, what can they do? They could make it clear that the only way for the US government to borrow anything from them is if they also borrow money to mount an invasion of Europe.

The first time that happened was called the Great War, which was later called “World War One.” Why does the US keep invading places that seem to fit the interests of the UK, Israel, and the Vatican? Because the debtor is being directed or “employed” by the lender.

Sometimes there are “warning shots fired” to give a “slap on the wrist” to “disloyal governments.” However, the implicit bribery conducted by those big lenders still does have limits.

Whatever resources they use to bribe and influence the politicies of one nation, those finite resources can not be used at any other nation. Every time that the IMF bankrupts another country, then that country cannot make their installment payments and that can be very bad for the lender… or perhaps very good.

For instance, the US government has gone bankrupt a few times. One time was in 1933 when the possession of gold by US Citizens was criminalized. (That law was modified several times and then totally rescinded in the 1970s).

Why was gold criminalized and confiscated? Because the US had been borrowing from the Federal Reserve Bank using “the cumulative assets of all US Citizens” as part of the collateral of the lending contracts. Soon, the gold was collected and then a portion of what the US owed to The Fed was paid back in gold.

The Fed did not get back their entire investment, BUT that was probably never their plan anyway. They negotiated a major transfer of political sovereignty away from the US congress (and public) towards them. Within a few years, the US finally adopted the socialist programs that had been conceived by the rockefellers and other mega-capitalists who wanted to shift power and wealth away from the public (their competition) to their puppets/agents (central government bureaucracies).

Eventually, not only did the lenders “own” governments, but their governments also began lending programs like FHA and HUD that involved the US government lending out money that they had borrowed (or at least underwriting / “co-signing” ALL those loans). That transferred more control away from the general public to the central rulers.

When the mortgages do not get paid, then ownership goes to the US (as in the court system), who then can use those assets to pay some of their debts to the Fed. The board game “monopoly” includes a “total” concentration of wealth by the end.

So, if I borrow $300k from chase bank, what if they got all of those funds by borrowing it from “the real ruler?” What if it is the same at every other bank too?

Every bank in the US operates under the terms set by the Fed, which is a private institution. It is owned largely “by proxy” for the Vatican, the British Crown, the Rothschild Zionist “cartel,” etc etc etc…..

Anyway, when I started publishing forecasts in 2003 of the global downturn that developed a few years later, I also anticipated the kind of responses that politicians in the US and elsewhere eventually implemented. What if governments in many places basically transferred risk away from private banks toward taxpayers? What if they bailed out the banks by buying junk debt at face value (and billing the taxpayers)?

 

Court systems are operations for systematically extracting wealth from a population, whether by taxes or a direct confiscation like of gold in the US in 1933. Court systems generally have the coercive capacity to effectively dictate to the masses what form of payment can be used to cover the debts that governments invent and then impose on their populations.

In other words, courts inspire “demand” for particular currencies by inventing debts and then collecting them. A “pseudo-currency” like bitcoin can never displace a currency backed by the military power of a court system.

(Note that when a court system adopts something like silver or gold as a “standard” that can be used to pay the debts that they invent and impose, that does not change the fundamental nature of the coercive enterprise. With each nation that adds or removes gold as an accepted form of payment to cover debts, that increases or decreases demand for gold, “artificially” influencing market pricing.)

As for forecasting dips and long-term collapses like the last 28 years of stock market weakness in Japan, credit bubbles are a big part of that. There are also stats labeled as “leading indicators” (like “price to earnings ratio”).

Not only do those ratios indicate how “thin or solid” market prices are, but that is assuming that all the corporate accounting is accurate. Recently, GE’s systematic fraud for many years has been exposed as similar in severity to Enron.

Of course, some people can blame a particular politician for prosecuting corporate fraud “too harshly” (or too loosely), but an underlying issue is the almost total lack of “literacy” by the investing public. I could propose that they do not care if GE or Enron is conducting large-scale fraud because if they did care, then they would have explored that topic prior to investing- instead of being surprised at the latest indictment or bankruptcy filing.

Why did GE and Enron commit fraud so well for so long? Because those in control (including the global lenders) either did not care or encouraged it- directly or indirectly.

How many major banks and corporations across the world routinely commit fraud? Maybe 1%. Maybe 99%. Not 0% though.

However, we do expect that typically when they commit accounting fraud, they do it in a way that makes their finances look better than they are. In fact, I am not aware of any cases in which a corporation attempted to reduce their apparent creditworthiness. In the global competition to attract huge loans, the lenders are functionally in charge of how they assess credit of prospective borrowers and how they attempt to discourage or identify fraudulent accounting.

So, recent ratios show historic extremes of “weakness” in credit markets worldwide (an inflated bubble that is about to deflate and cause the purchasing powers of currencies to SOAR- similar to what has happened in Japan in the last 30 years or so). In other words, people that perceive that they will be able to borrow huge amounts of money for years or decades tend to “discount” how conservative they are with their cash reserves. The trend is that they hysterically discount cash further and further (while overvaluing credit/ borrowing), and then that trend reverses, sometimes suddenly.

Recent ratios also show historic extremes of stock valuation (clear evidence of an extreme “bubble”). Relative to historical norms, people are dismissing the value of saving cash (discounting the practical value of cash in order to pour it in to stocks, bitcoin, or real estate down payments).

When borrowers find that they can no longer obtain a bigger credit line, then suddenly they shift their focus from trying to get as much as credit possible to focusing exclusively on gathering cash- as in selling their time and assets to acquire cash. When enough borrowers are all “in a cash crunch,” then none of them are buying speculative assets (like all stocks and most real estate).

Suddenly there are more orders to sell than orders to buy. So, prices fall- sometimes sharply.

What exactly will they sell most aggressively? If there is recent publicity about a new court case against GE for ongoing systematic accounting fraud, plus GE is already down a few percent recently, then that may be the first asset that everyone all at once is trying to dump.

Below is a chart of nearly 2 decades of prices for GE. Note that for all of 2017, GE stock prices were falling. In fact, the only year shown above that GE’s stock price fell more than in 2017 was 2008.

Now, I do not expect many people to read this far. I expect most people to experience various levels of anxiety or terror or “kneejerk denial” as they read some of the content above. They may say in frustration “that idea just does not make sense to me!”

Maybe the actual realities are quite simple. Maybe their conceptual framework is flawed. Maybe it is a very big business to skew the conceptual frameworks of the masses of mainstream investors so as to deceive them in to presuming things like “it is safe to invest in AIG because they are an insurance company and insurance companies always keep their risks low (by legal decree).”

Dare to look at AIG’s prices for the last 10 years? They did recover a bit from the lowest price levels (which were after their “idiotic business practices” came in to public attention about 10 years ago), but the recovery has been rather modest.

So, not only are certain stock market ratios “screaming” that prices are far too high to indefinitely remain anywhere near current levels. Further, to me, we can assume that the reality is actually much worse than what is suggested in many of those ratios.

Why? Because I presume (consciously) that cases of corporate accounting fraud tend to exaggerate the financial stability (net worth) of the company. The fraud is not to make the company look less stable than it is.

Further, I am clear that the current ratios, even if never “enhanced” by fraud, still are based on “grossly-inflated assessments” of the market value of assets like real estate, “junk-grade” bonds, and of course stock market holdings. To me, if you can understand simple math, then the main issue with someone understanding the basics of current global economic conditions is their emotional resilience.

Those who are emotionally resilient VALUE directly facing relevant, simple truths. They will quickly be able to recognize favorable alternatives because they are not busy hiding from certain realities. For everyone else, they can argue over which politician should have done what (and congratulate each other for bravely condemning the  awful practices of those evil accountants at Enron… or GE… or HSBC… or AIG… or the IMF etc etc etc).

 

Stable investment gains not of 2 digit percentages per year, but 3 and even 4:

February 9, 2018

The image here shows actual results from 4 distinct trading systems (which have almost no correlation between them). Not only can I give you access to any 4 of these systems, but I can also combine them (which results in extremely low levels of risk).

So, if you are interested in accessing returns like this, contact me privately. For more of the actual statistics for these systems (plus more comments from me), see below.

 

To clarify, the image above is a quick “overlay” of 4 charts. The purpose of that chart is simply to show two things very clearly:

1) All 4 systems each independently offer an extremely favorable opportunity (especially relative to very moderate risk).

2) The 4 systems have very little correlation to each other.

That second detail might not be of great value to you yet, but it is to me. Why? I’ve made massive percentage gains several times (as in 300% in a single week in 2002 and then 300% in a month in 2006). However, many of the strategies that I used 10 or 15 years ago eventually proved to have high levels of risk (and tons of stress for me).

So, while I found it easy to forecast the global economic downturn about a decade ago, trading is a very different enterprise than long-term economic forecasting. I can show you year after year of my publications forecasting the long-term spike in global fuel prices, plus the collapse of global lending markets, real estate markets, and eventually stock markets. However, I have never consistently produced fantastic gains with minimal long-term risks.

Instead, I used strategies that simply were not as reliable as the ones shown here. Why? My excuses ultimately dissolve in to this simple admission: I was just not as committed to producing long-term results like these back then.

Below are the actual stats for these 4 systems. Note that the first two are both about 16 months old, while the latter two are 6 months old.

#1:
average gains per 12 month period (after all expenses): 79%
completed trades: 42
average trade duration: 12 days
Maximum peak-to-valley drawdown 12.80%

#2:
average gains per 12 month period (after all expenses): 128%
completed trades: 53
average trade duration: 8 days
Maximum peak-to-valley drawdown 13.45%

#3:
actual returns (after all expenses) : 76.5% (note that this system is only 6 months old as of publication)
gains annualized out to 12 full month period: 200%
completed trades: 7
average trade duration: 26 days
Maximum peak-to-valley drawdown 7.04%

#4: actual returns (after all expenses) : 556.7% (note that this system is only 6 months old as of publication)

gains annualized out to 12 full months: 24,633%
completed trades: 49
average trade duration: 3.5 days
Maximum peak-to-valley drawdown 17.71%

On combining all 4 to make a single system (with profits that rise in a much smoother line):

So, how did I get the figure of 6,542%? First, I simply took the amount of the annual gains for each system and added them together.

79%
128%
200%
24,633%

That totals 26,168%. Then I divided that by 4. That gives us the average annual gain of 6,542%.

 

My comments:

Obviously, the last one listed is by far the most profitable of the 4. If I could do only one of them, that one would naturally be my preference.

So, why am I more comfortable combining all 4 rather than just using 1? First, gains of over 6,000 percent per year would be massive if compounded for a few years. Second, with CONSISTENT GAINS of this size, I can easily AFFORD to chop the moderate levels of risk of any single system down to extremely low levels (by spreading out across four systems that feature totally distinct markets, signals, and timeframes).

So, in addition to the fact that any 1 of these 4 systems alone have shown MUCH less downside risk than something very volatile like bitcoin (which plunged by about 45% in 5 days in early January of 2018), I have even better news. By combining all 4 at once, we will significantly flatten the risk.

How much exactly would it flatten the risk? For comparison, the maximum downside risk (if simply projecting past performance) would be FAR LESS than a typical mutual fund or stock index.

So, would the balance ever go down by a few percent in a week or even for an entire month? Eventually, that is almost certainly inevitable. However, as long as the rallies remain large and long, everyone will quickly forget any brief, small dip.

Projecting this out for 2 years:

To clarify the first point about how fast this rate of profitability would increase the total account balance, let’s look at what would happen to a $100,000 investment that is compounding at 6,000 percent gains per year for just 2 years. (Here, I am using 6,000 instead of 6,542 to keep the math simpler.)

Starting balance: $100,000
1 year later: $6,000,000
2 years later: $36,000,000,000

Personally, I am sure that for my own funds I would not wait anywhere close to a full year before withdrawing a decent amount of the profits (like in order to spend a few thousand dollars here or there). Also, unless these investments are traded in a tax-exempt shelter, there would be some rather large chunks that would need to come out for income taxes. Plus, as an experienced trader, I am clear that none of these 4 systems would continue to work nearly as well if the actual positions traded involved millions of dollars at once.

S​o, what I am requesting of you? I’d like to know if you are interested in learning more about this opportunity. If you are, just contact me. (You can post a reply to this blog.)

Also, w​hatever precautions you can imagine, I am confident that we can make that work. Let me know. For instance, a lawyer or CPA of your choice could be hired to handle all money going in to or out of the brokerage accounts (as in the deposits and withdrawals). After all, there would be plenty of profits to cover some minimal fees for their services, right?

What I would need is just to be able to manage the actual orders for entering and exiting trades. I would not even need to directly execute a single trade myself (so there would be no stress for me from occasional surprises like my internet connection getting interrupted for 30 seconds).

Naturally, I am also interested in knowing the approximate amount of funds that you would be able to access in the near future to invest. (Just to be clear, you do know that 20% per year of interest on a credit card is significantly less than 6,000% percent, right?)

Finally, ​you and I will agree to me receiving​ a portion of the profits that will be generated. ​In other words, if you were thinking that I would help you turn $10k in to over $600k in ​just 12 months​ without any compensation at all, ​then ​you might be slightly ​unrealistic.

These systems are totally real though. The figure of 6,542% total profit per year would be when letting each of the 4 systems compound independently of each other for 12 entire months. In fact, I would definitely not do it that way if it was my own funds. I would re-distribute the profits at least monthly (like to re-equalize the balances of all 4 systems at least 12 times per year).

Wouldn’t that drop the total annual return to slightly below 1,000%? Yes, it would. So, maybe after one year of that, I would be willing to let all the 4 systems operate for much longer between re-allocations.

Can you participate even without fully understanding the terminology or ideas above? Definitely. Just tell me that you are interested.

Remodeling estimate websites: Ranking all of my sites

February 9, 2018

By far, my best single URL in terms of the most clicks (and inquiries) has been this one: http://TheGarageBuilders.net

 

As of 2/8/2018, the click totals for the last 28-30 days were 55 for Bing & 64 for Google. That is an all-time high for Bing (and the click frequency has been rising steadily for quite a while). The all-time high for Google was exactly 100 (a few months ago). Here is a chart of clicks on Google (covering a little over one full year):
geb on google
At the bottom of the image, you can two of the cities where this website has been doing well: Phoenix AZ & Houston TX.
In fact, a few months ago, I launched 3 “local” URLs for Texas, AZ, & Atlanta. Here are their totals so far:
http://azgaragebuilders.com : 49 on Bing & 16 on Google
http://texasgaragebuilders.com : 56 on Bing & 4 on Google
http://atlantagaragebuilders.com : 18 on Bing & 7 on Google
I also have a few other websites that do well for some garage-related searches. Those include carportconversion.net, garageconversion.net, hometeamaz.net, azproplus.com, & conversionsaz.com (among others).

http://www.RemodelingPlus.net (& local variations)

Another important set of sites feature the word “remodeling” in the URL. I will come back to those later.

flood remodel

November 23, 2017

(I am just saving these images for use on a webpage to promote remodeling services.)

 


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