weekly market report 6/1 – last week, markets were rather flat

(Note at the end of this update, I added a response form my latest new investing client plus my response to him.)

I’m watching for gold and bonds to breakdown this week… but with some concern that if they do not fall promptly (early this week), then a brief but relatively strong rise could manifest in both of those markets.

For bonds, they have fell enough that I may be taking some profits this morning. If they rally from here, I expect them to go at least above 184 (to a new high for recent weeks). The last week is shown in the box.

For gold, here’s the chart from last week:
an updated chart:
I am watching for gold to potentially “follow-through” on the decline from the 1760s. In the longer-term, I am highly confident that it will drop a lot.
Silver has continued to rise relative to gold. So, if they both fall, I will ride silver down. If they both rise, I *might* take some short-term small trades for a rise.

For oil, here is the chart I showed last week:

Here is an updated chart showing that momentum has been mostly neutral: definitely no longer the strong rallying from late April thru mid-May, but no breakdown lower either.
The latest week in the EUR:USD rate is highlighted. I expect the latest rally to “fail badly.” the closer it gets to 1.13, the more interested I will be in in watching for a sharp enough decline that I want to begin to incrementally increase exposure.

Regarding US stocks, prices have continued to modestly rise in the last several days, but with a clear exhausting of momentum. While I am eager for them to begin a sharper move (which I expect to be “down hard”), there is still some potential for a longer “drift upward.”



new client replied (on 6/1):
So what I am reading (because I am not too knowledgeable on the subject) is nothing is looking very good at the moment?  You are not feeling confident there is money to be made at the moment?

I think that would make some sense even based on what is happening all over.  But I also could have misread your email.

JR replied (still on 6/1):
This recent weekly update is within the context of several weeks of updates. At the moment, I expect the opportunity to be better/cheaper/clearer later in the week.

For instance, I am very confident that bond prices *soon* will be far below current levels… but I am not so sure about *tomorrow.* (And I/we can make profits from any movement in price- rising or falling.)
More or less, the same is true of metals… and for US stocks… and for the EUR:USD exchange rate.

My actual “bias” for the very immediate future is that stocks (and the EUR-USD forex rate) will likely rise a bit before falling… while bonds and metals drop more quickly.
But I am not very attracted to the “opportunity” of riding stock prices up by a small amount for a day or two. The downside risk is massive. The upside potential is minimal.
However, the probability of a small rise is to me “too high” to take big positions as of a few hours ago. I am okay waiting.

One Response to “weekly market report 6/1 – last week, markets were rather flat”

  1. weekly market report 6/20: US stocks are beyond the risk levels of January 2020 & mid-2007 | power of language blog: partnering with reality by JR Fibonacci Says:

    […] my current clients as of then can find it in the email I sent them that day. Otherwise click here: https://jrfibonacci.wordpress.com/2020/06/08/weekly-market-report-6-1-last-week-markets-were-rather-… ) In the last 2 weeks, Oil has been much more resilient. However, the new high on Friday was only […]

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