Review my recent predictions of reversals in major investment markets

For investors, here is a brief review of the last 9 months or so of my investments (across several major markets). In addition to showing several charts (of when I invested in what), I will conclude by referencing a few of the commentaries that I have published in the last 16 years.

If you find that you are interested in benefiting from my trading insights, I can either trade your funds within a pool or within your own private account (as your “authorized trader”). Contact me for details.

 

Generally speaking, my perception is that most investors greatly underestimate the risks of conventional investment strategies and also underestimate the benefits of strategies like mine. Mainly, we will focus here on my strategy and how it is distinctively beneficial.

Overall, my strategy features the occasional analysis of several major markets to identify which ones are strongest or weakest at any particular time. I attempt first to identify in advance the potential of a long-term reversal in each market. Second, I also attempt to identify specific short-term opportunities and trading signals. In this presentation, we will focus mainly on my recent record of identifying long-term reversals. At the end, I will link some relevant commentaries of mine from 2004 and 2005.

 

Again, my top priority when planning my investments is to identify significant price reversals before they start. By significant, I mean price reversals that will begin trends that will last at least for months if not years. Once I identify a probable reversal, I then position myself to profit from those “major changes in trend.” Knowing of probable trend changes before they happen is key for controlling risk as well as for maximizing profit potential.

First, we will quickly review the 3 of the 5 major markets that I occasionally trade with attention to which kind of position I entered across the last 10 months in each market (within a specific brokerage account that I opened on 10/4/2018). Those 3 markets shown below are US treasury bonds, the US stock market, and precious metals (primarily silver). For those who ask, I can also provide charts of my trades for crude oil and for the currency exchange rate between the Euro and the US Dollar.

While many people focus almost exclusively on the US stock market, that is obviously not my orientation. However, there are two periods of time in the last 10 months that I have made very distinctive statements about a high probability of a decline in US stock prices. For Facebook users, I am even posting a series of links to the specific comments of mine on Facebook in those two clusters of time:
period 1:
9/26/2019 – 10/4/2019
period 2:
7/19/2019
Facebook users can ask me to tag them in the thread to see the specific relevant comment (which is deep within the “thread” of comments):

spx 12 months with notes

You can also see the 18 days that I entered positions that profit from a rise in US stock prices. That includes a cluster of 5 straight days in December of 2018. Note that those were the best days in the last year to purchase US stocks. Across the first few months of 2019, I also entered “long” positions in the US stock market within a day or two of several short-term lows. Next, in late May, prior to a long rally in US stocks, there was 1 more day that I entered positions that are “long” US stocks. Last, during August 2019 there have been a few weeks of “bouncing” markets and I entered trades that were “long” the US stock market on several of those days.

tlt with notes
Next, within the US bond market, I entered trades a total of 19 days from October 2018 to June of 2019. The only 3 days that I entered trades “long” the US bond market are shown in a green oval. Again, that was the best period of the year to go long US bonds. Among the 16 days that I “shorted” the US bond market (shown in red), I also circled 5 days in a row of shorting US bonds at the very end of 2018.
slv

Concluding comments:

Generally speaking, I did quite well in identifying the main price reversals in those 3 markets within the last 9 to 10 months. If you are interested in benefiting from my trading insights, I can either trade your funds within a pool or within your own private account (as your “authorized trader”). Contact me for details.

Now, before we conclude, let’s consider some “bigger picture” issues. There was a baby boom in the middle of the 19th century. You are probably aware of it. As those people retire (and begin to sell their retirement investments, plus no longer add to them), I expect a “tide” of massive changes in many investment markets.

In fact, that tide has already manifested in many parts of the world. In Asia overall, stock markets peaked in 2007 and have generally fallen since then. In Europe overall, stock markets peaked in 2000 and have generally fallen since then.

 

What do I propose has kept the US economy ahead of those regions? Among other things, the US is the top producer of crude oil in the world. In contrast, much of Asia and Europe are extremely dependent on imported fossil fuels. That is why in 2008 prices of diesel exceeded $11 per gallon in parts of Europe.

 

Further, in my publications of 2004 and 2005, I specifically forecast that the rise in fuel prices that started in 1999 would continue. I explained exactly why I expected that rise to continue. I also explained what results I considered to be predictable (including a big downturn in lending markets that would result in a real estate decline, plus major destabilizations of mainstream financial institutions).

 

Item #1)

Navigating the New Economy, Lesson 1: “Worth its Weight in OIL”

J.R. Fibonacci
September 9th, 2005

Link to the original article:
http://321energy.com/editorials/fibonacci/fibonacci090705.html 

Item #2)

Are you affected by the real US deficit: oil?

November 7th, 2004

Reprinted version of that 2004 article:

Way back in 2004 I was bringing up issues that, within a few years, many others would also consider:

 

A key section in that article was when I made an analogy about what kinds of events could be expected globally because of major fluctuations in CRUDE OIL markets. I was referencing a specific past development as a clear warning for future potentials:

“Eventually, more delinquency on mortgages led to more foreclosures. With so many foreclosure auctions, most local housing prices dropped. People who had just refinanced their homes suddenly owed more than their homes would sell for, plus many had even less income than before. Bankruptcy rates increased.” 

 
Recall that within a few years, not only were lots of people concerned about rising fuel prices, but also about the exact set of developments that I had written about in 2004. (By the way, I can provide links to many other articles of mine across 2003 to 2008 in which I reference the events that manifested in 2007-2009.)

So, in addition to specifically forecasting many of the biggest changes in global markets in recent decades, I also have a clear record of anticipating smaller moves (multi-month moves). The basic point is that I know and respect some of the major “leading indicators” that precede major moves up AND down (across a wide variety of markets). In many cases, I even recognize very quickly that a specific trend change is likely to last years rather than only a few months. 

In fact, I can send you a link to a commentary of mine in early March of 2009 in which I forecast a significant rebound in US stock prices. That rebound began a few days AFTER that commentary (and has lasted for OVER A DECADE).

However, in my commentary prior to the start of that rally, I actually was not clear that the rally would last so many years. Still, as long as I can forecast even multi-month fluctuations, then there is no issue of “missing” the long-term ones. The short-term ones become long-term ones.

On that note, I have recently mentioned to several people that I expect the recent rally in prices of precious metals and US bonds to both reverse sharply (downward) and to decline not just for months but years. That is because the extremes in the data that I monitor are at “historic levels,” not just “multi-month extremes.”

As a sidenote for real estate investors, a multi-year decline in US bond prices corresponds to a multi-year increase in interest rates. That can be very bad for the real estate market (just as the last 4 decades of mostly declining interest rates has overall been fantastic for US real estate markets in that time).

Once again, if you are interested in benefiting from my trading insights, I can either trade your funds within a pool or within your own private account (as your “authorized trader”). Contact me for details.

One Response to “Review my recent predictions of reversals in major investment markets”

  1. I predicted the recent bounce in interest rates, but what could it mean for the construction industry? | power of language blog: partnering with reality by JR Fibonacci Says:

    […] By the way, yes, I am that forecaster. And I am not new to forecasting interest rate fluctuations (or other investment trends). Here is a chart showing 8 reversals that I predicted from October 2018 to June of 2019. Here is a link to report that goes with this chart: https://jrfibonacci.wordpress.com/2019/09/01/review-my-recent-predictions-of-reversals-in-major-inve… […]

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