I assert that science is a simple, logical way of thinking. In scientific inquiry, there is a great respect for data, especially similar data from a large number of independent sources. If a variety of researchers are all using different methods and instruments to collect a bunch of related data in a variety of ways, then if they all notice the same trend, that is notable, right?
Above is a chart showing data from the entire month of October 2016. Before I address how unusual the data charted above is, I want to draw your attention to a couple of things that are very obvious in a quick glance at the color patterns.
First, much of the chart is pink, right? That was pretty easy so far.
Next, the largest concentration of blue is in a very specific area of the chart. We can agree that it is in the upper right, correct?
This next point is a bit less obvious. Notice the spread of dark red areas. If I asked you to identify the horizontal range where most of the dark red is, what would you say?
Did you notice that a lot of the red in the chart is near the horizontal mid-line of that chart? That is in the “tropics” of the planet, which are areas relatively close to the equator (and far from the poles). We can even specify that much of the dark red in the tropics is either away from land or near an ocean coast.
Again, I will address the significance of the above data soon. First, I add some context to the blue region in the upper right of the above chart. One limitation of the above chart is that the colors are in little blocks. What if we could see a much more precise “map” of temperature variations?
The image below shows similar data but from a different period of time (last week). Also, this a polar map (from above the north pole). Note the shape of United States in the left lower left.
The colors obviously cluster in the center (red) and in the upper right (purple). That data is not for the actual recorded temperatures but for the deviation from normal for the average temperature FORECASTS for 5 days. So the local temperatures that were forecast on November 17 (for the 18th to the 22nd) are shown above.
What is the main point of me showing these two charts? I actually intend to emphasize first not the unusually warm areas, but the unusually cool areas across northern Russia (Siberia).
Why did I want to emphasize that? Because I am very skeptical of the well-publicized notion that there is a global trend of warming. Is there a trend of warming across MOST of the globe? According to the data sets that I have reviewed, yes.
However, most of the globe (such between 51% and 99%) having a trend of increased warmth is not the entire globe (as in 100%). That brings me to my next point about science. In scientific research, there is great value on precision.
For example, if you have a tricycle (with 3 wheels), does it make a difference whether “all” of the wheels are working or only “most” of them are working? What if the front wheel on a tricycle is significantly warped and cannot rotate, but “most of the wheels” are working fine? Is that any different than if ALL of the wheels are working fine?
So, notice that many people prefer the term “climate change” over “global warming.” Why? One reason is that if there is a clear trend of Siberian cooling (like month after month and year after year) while most of the world is warming, then that variation might be important.
In the title of this article, I mention the word “spin.” Some scientists attempt to measure changes in the spin of the earth.
Imagine a spinning top (as in the toy). The speed of the spin could change eventually. Also, the toy will begin to wobble before it succumbs to the pull of gravity.
By the way, if you are familiar with the term “anti-gravity,” but do not know an example of it, then spin a top. The rapidly rotating top has a “low center of gravity,” but when that center of gravity rises (as the spin slows down and the wobbling starts), then the “anti-gravity” forces (countering gravitational pull) decrease until gravity “knocks over” the top.
The force of gravity did not change from one minute to the next. The anti-gravitational force is “created” by spinning the top, but that eventually decreases. We could even say that the vortex of the spinning top creates a “lift” that pushes up on the lower portion of the top. Like with a tornado or hurricane, spinning the top creates a “low pressure system” over the top plus a “high pressure system” under the top (“lifting” it like wings create “lift” for an airplane or even for a bird).
Sometimes, it is totally fine to use imprecise terms. However, scientists are at least interested in the issue of precision. If they are being imprecise, they typically want to know it, not ignore it or deny it hysterically.
In the media and elsewhere, people use the term “spin” to refer to a bias (however intentional) that favors a particular way of presenting or filtering information. It is not wrong to use Celsius or Fahrenheit, but many people relate to certain aspects of reality as if “there is only one right way to measure or relate to” a particular subject. It is not wrong to show a satellite image from the north pole or one from the equator. In fact, it is remarkable how argumentative people can be about defending a term like “global warming” (OR attacking it).
Do I prefer the term “climate change?” I do. I also prefer to use Fahrenheit over Celsius.
That might seem like an unrelated comparison. However, each degree in Fahrenheit represents a smaller change in temperature than each degree in Celsius. In other words, Fahrenheit degrees are smaller (as in more precise).
Is it “wrong” to use the term “global warming?” It is less precise than other options… maybe even much less precise. However, NASA data shows that since 1880, the last 12 months have featured 10 of the warmest months on record. The other 2 were 13 months ago and 17th months ago (as in last year).
This NOAA chart below shows the specific trend in annual temperature averages. Above the chart, you can see the data showing that the overall trend is an increase of .007 degrees Celsius per year (.07 per decade).
If the years prior to 1910 were excluded, the average increase would be even larger. Plus, from the mid-1940s to the late 1970s, the trend of “global warming” did not just disappear…. it even reversed!
Further, I did not research whether the data charted above is for “the entire planet” or for the US in general or what. I honestly am not especially interested in the subject of global warming or CO2 greenhouse effects. However, I am interested in the long history of changes in climate (as well as certain specific details like changing sea levels, especially sudden rises in sea level… although I read last week that the land mass of part of New Zealand was raised by about 2 meters in about 90 seconds… see the new shoreline in the photo on the right).
So what is going on with the spin of the earth? Is the spin destabilizing with an increasing wobble?
I think so. I also think that the earth’s rotation is very different from a toy spinning on the top of a table. The wobble of the earth can increase or decrease. For instance, if some other interplanetary object is on a trajectory that decreases the distance between that thing and the earth, then an object with strong electromagnetic or gravitational influence can temporarily disrupt the earth’s spin.
Exactly how much evidence has been collected about changes in the wobble of the earth? I am not certain.
I do know that if Siberia is unusually cold, plus northern Canada is unusually warm, plus the tropics of the entire planet are repeatedly experiencing bigger variations in temperature (higher highs AND lower lows), then that might be worth investigating. Could you imagine any other possibility of a clear evidence of an increased wobble? (Note that the chart at the beginning of this article only shows a pattern of lots of record highs in the tropics for October, so my main point here is that there is a lot of data available for anyone who might want to explore this hypothesis further.)
I also know that it is remarkable to me that many people seem very emphatic about the specific claim that not only is there a trend of global warming, but that it is caused by human activity. Further, many of those people seem not to be informed about systems to measure the fluctuating temperature of the sun or other planets.
Are cyclic ice ages widely accepted as part of geological history? Are there a lot of measurements being made of the temperatures of other planets, the sun, and even the moon?
To me, at least some of the “global warming advocates” seem uninterested in scientific merit. Is there such a thing as a “greenhouse effect?” Yes. However, is every fluctuation in temperature automatically evidence of a greenhouse effect?
I invite you to put your hand near some metal that has been warming up in the sun and see if you can feel the heat. You could even take a charged 9-volt battery and touch it to your tongue and feel a surge of heat.
Most changes in temperature are not related to CO2 levels. If that is in any way shocking to you or causes you to overheat, then I invite you to chill out by the method of dramatically reducing CO2 levels in your bloodstream.
(Actually, that kind of dramatic reduction in CO2 is called hypocapnia, as in hyperventilation or hypoxia. It can kill someone by suffocation within a few minutes. By the way, the way you would “cool off” overheating brain cells would be to RAISE the Co2 levels in your bloodstream, not to lower CO2.)
I digress! Let me come back to a specific hypothesis about global warming (AKA “climate change”). My understanding is that salinity (saltiness) effects the freezing point of water. For instance, if you have ever heard of throwing salt on snow to make the snow melt faster, then that is about increased salinity reducing ice levels (with NO change in temperature OR levels of CO2). The salt changes the electrical conductivity of the water (saltwater), which changes the properties of water crystalization (AKA “freezing”).
So what if salinity levels are changing in oceans worldwide? Could that effect ice levels? Could that also effect humidity levels (the amount of moisture in the air)?
“October 2016 Arctic sea ice extent was the lowest in the 38-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC)…. Amazingly, temperatures in the Arctic have spiked in mid-November to even higher values, and were 20°C (36°F) above average north of 80°N this week. The unusual warmth in the Arctic has CREATED [or is otherwise correlated to???] an unusual amount of open water, which has provided high amounts of moisture to the atmosphere. As a result, widespread snows fell in regions where it was cold enough to snow; snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere in October was the third greatest on record.”
That author asserts that warmth caused less ice / more unfrozen water. Could it be that altered salinity caused less ice, which caused more humidity, which caused higher temperatures?
I personally am not certain. Plus, the average temperature in parts of the Arctic were more than 30 degrees Fahrenheit above prior norms. Further, the factor of salinity may not explain the much lower temperatures in Siberia (but a wobble would explain that).
I also know that the unusual rise in fall snow in recent years has been a seasonal shift. In other words, spring snow has been much lower (in addition to fall snow being much less).
So it is not that more snow overall is falling, but that it is just falling sooner. In the charts below, you can also see that in the 1970s, there was a pattern of snow falling much later, with several Novembers of much less snow (plus Aprils and May with much more).
Further, I know that the authors who mention salinity may consistently present a very different causal sequence than those who (like the author quoted above) published no mention whatsoever of the issue of salinity. Note that I am not a climate scientist. However, I am intrigued to read about wild swings in ice coverage.
“Just two years ago, in September 2014, Antarctic sea ice extent hit the highest values observed at any time of the year since monitoring began in 1979. We’re now seeing the lowest values on record for mid-November” 2016. (Note that it is springtime there, not fall.)
I am aware that I did not present any specific evidence of a change in the wobble or spin of the earth. However, the first two images at the top (relating to average temperatures) would correlate with an earth that is currently tilting Siberia away from the sun and northern Canada toward the sun. If a tilt is what is happening, then temperature data from the south pole should generally “mirror” the temperature data from the north pole. Someone COULD explore that hypothesis (and I am confident that many people have, although it is not the function of the mainstream media to present unbiased information, but to systematically bias people’s attention toward certain issues and away from all others).
In science, one of the ways to compare different models of cause and effect is to issue projections (predictions, forecasts). When a model consistently is more accurate at predicting the future than all other models, we might give attention to that model. When a researcher or related group of researchers (like all using similar models / theories) is consistently more accurate than all other forecasters, what about then?
I am going to relatively abruptly conclude and simply present a few charts that I find the most alarming of what I have seen so far. I might share some specific comments on which researchers and models have been more accurate at making forecasts. My main point here is that if the speculations of people like Al Gore have been wildly inaccurate while the speculations of certain less publicized authors have been consistently precise, then maybe those who are interested in actual science will start to consider the issue of which authors have been consistently precise. If you would like more information on which forecasters are, as far as I know, the most accurate / credible, you are welcome to make a comment on this blog like “keep me updated” (or just the abbreviation “kmu”).
Note the red line in mid-November 2016 (and how far it is below the other 37 years shown). Would you like to know who forecast this late 2016 drop in total polar ice (both poles) of EIGHT standard deviations?
This blue chart shows the recent plunge to eight standard deviations below normal.
The green line of Antarctic ice shows a recent plunge (in just the last few months). That plunge in particular is what is going to correlate to some very unusual climate changes in the next few months.
Note that I am presuming that some of the people who have forecast all of the above effects (as being due to a combination of salinity and wobble) will continue to be accurate. None of their predictive models are based on CO2 levels or the greenhouse effect.
Further, what if the changes in salinity and wobble are both due to a very specific interplanetary development that is easy to confirm? What if the salinity issue is even caused by the wobble?
Would you be interested in knowing what the most credible researchers are expecting (and what to do about it to minimize detriment and maximize benefit)? If so, again, simply make a comment on this blog of “kmu” (and if you type “kmPu” then I will keep you PRIVATELY updated, making a point not to publish your comment- though that will only work for people who have never commented on my blog).
Special thanks go to DB and SD for bringing this information to my attention.