Simple insights regarding investment markets, IRAs, and more

Below is a long sequence of comments regarding investments. I do not enter the conversation until this symbol below (if you scroll down).

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Interesting article, that talks about how complex systems fail, from the perspective of global economies. Read the article, and stop and think about how your complex system Thrives, limps along, or fails. Jack NeilAlert

Greece’s banks will be closed indefinitely, starting on Monday, after the European Central Bank (ECB) announced that it will end liquidity funding that was being…
BREITBART.COM

 

 

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Gretchen Bronson I’d love to hear J R Fibonacci Hunn take on this. his economics blogs are very insightful…..

 

 

  • J R Fibonacci Hunn I can comment on many details. First, I began to publish reports and forecasts in 2003 pertaining to an emerging “wealth transfer” of historic proportions. I detailed the set-up for the coming decline in “global” real estate and financial stocks (which is far from over). In 2004, I used the term “the dominOil effect” to describe why fuel prices globally had been rising since 1999 and what it would do to Europe and the US as those prices continued to spike, which they did until 2008 (when a gallon of diesel was up to $11 in the UK and Germany).

    screenshot from the original location of the 2004 article:

    https://jrfibonacci.files.wordpress.com/…/first-usxe…

    JRFIBONACCI.FILES.WORDPRESS.COM
  • J R Fibonacci Hunn Second, as of last week, I was already in position for the flood in to the US bond market that happened starting 18 hours ago or so in Asia. 30-year yields dropped over 5% overnight (and 2-year yields dropped over 12%). I do not recall ever seeing such a huge change so quickly.

    I have “very moderately leveraged positions” that benefited quite a bit from that sudden swing. The pace of redistribution from the naive to the astute is speeding up, as expected.

  • J R Fibonacci Hunn As for currency and Austrian Economics, I love Von Mises and all of his analysis. It is the modern “reactionary libertarians” (such as I used to be) that seem absurd.

    The demand for currency comes from the military power of the state. When a mafia forms an army and says “we are the state and you all owe us protection money in the form of taxes and fines and fees,” then what happens? If the coercion and violence of the mafia’s soldiers is sufficient to terrorize the masses, then they perceive that their best alternative is to avoid getting arrested by paying the invented tax liabilities.

    What form of payment is accepted by the high priests of the mafia who collect tax payments down at the courthouse temple? If they say casino tokens from Harrah’s, then public demand for those casino tokens rockets. When the US invaded Texas (which was part of French Mexico at the time, right?), then Texans no longer wanted Pesos but wanted US Dollars suddenly. Same for the Louisiana Purchase (demand for one currency collapsed in that region and everyone wanted to exchange the old currency for the US Dollar).

  • J R Fibonacci Hunn Where did the first big wave of demand for gold and silver come from? When the high priests of the first “mafia armies” were trying to figure out a very rare substance that would be very easy to monopolize and then sell to the public, rare minerals were a great match for their plans. The armies surrounded all the mines and other locations of the rare deposits, then gathered the material and minted coins.

    This was more costly to them then making wooden nickels, but much more reliable, since the masses could rather easily access wood and “counterfeit” wooden nickels. So, the man-hour cost to produce a wooden nickel might be a tiny fraction of what the “rightful government of the Levites and Israelites” could intimidate the masses in to paying to buy that nickel. For instance, the masses might pay one sheep or a dozen oysters (which was worth however many man-hours of labor) in exchange for a wooden nickel that cost a tiny fraction of a man-hour to produce.

    Replace “wooden nickel” with “precious metal coin of gold or silver.” It is that simple. Now you know now why the prophets said “the gold bull is just a symbol of the power of the state. Do not worship the bull statue. Do not worship the gold. Respect the government’s soldier’s and respect the Lord of the heavenly armies of flying fallen angels who resides in Mount Hermon, who has threatened us with plagues and then made good on his threats (killing 24,000 Israelites) and who sent a flood to devastate so many species on this planet, and who will come again in the early 20th century to spread Spanish flu to depopulate us.”

    http://biblehub.com/numbers/25-9.htm

  • J R Fibonacci Hunn Of course, commercial interests can gather together and invent curriculums for the programming of the minds of the youth. Contempt for money and for the methods of government would be widely publicized. Reactionary libertarians can be cultivated who can say ridiculous things like “let’s go back to the good old days when the pretty shapes on ink on the paper of the constitution protected everyone and a tiny percentage of the white males were allowed to vote for who would rule them and everyone had the right to bear arms except of course for the President’s slaves, who would be punished for crimes like trying to learn to read.”
  • Anthony G. Beck I’m giving a virtual smootch and hug to Gretchen for Iceland comment smile emoticon I personally can’t wait for the reset button that we have coming to the USA and a return to our precious Republic.
  • J R Fibonacci Hunn The masses can be rewarded for memorizing the slogans that the teachers instruct them to memorize. They can be rewarded for answering the test questions by parroting slogans like “cholesterol is a dangerous poison” and “a gold-backed currency is the best” and “the federal reserve is a private bank that is either our holy savior or a terrible villain.”
  • J R Fibonacci Hunn Should I go on? Do you need to do a little CT before I start getting in to “the heavy stuff?” wink emoticon
  • Gretchen Bronson Interesting that you brought up the Bond mkt J R J R Fibonacci. On our drive back from NOLA we listed to a money podcast that was taking a about dumping bonds & moving things to a MM or long term.
  • Ben Belty What do you make of this J R Fibonacci Hunn?http://news.yahoo.com/texas-wants-gold-back-promises…

    Texas has a new law to set up a depository for gold…
    NEWS.YAHOO.COM|BY JON HERSKOVITZ
  • Gretchen Bronson Please don’t stop. This is important in the larger context most don’t see or understand
  • David Limacher When I read this, I realized how flawed the system is and how it’s been used as a tool for human engineering.http://www.goodreads.com/…/2714607-the-ascent-of-money

    Niall Ferguson follows the money to tell the human…
    GOODREADS.COM
  • J R Fibonacci Hunn As for those “good old Republics,” I agree that the People’s Republic of China is a great model for enslaving billions of human resources. Iceland will either get invaded or left alone or something else. As for it being the “reactionary libertarian’s wet dream,” anyone is welcome to try to relocate there. Take some nukes with you to keep away the other nations though.
  • J R Fibonacci Hunn What else to say? I offer professional account management services (including shelters that are tax-exempt for US citizens). Apparently, just last night I “closed” my first international investing client ever.
  • J R Fibonacci Hunn Gretchen, if you meant by MM “money market funds or a cash equivalent,” that can certainly be better in the long-run than speculative bubbles collapsing… like stocks, gold, or real estate.
  • J R Fibonacci Hunn While “low-grade” government bonds in Puerto Rico or Greece may be owned by lots of pensions funds in Detroit, that is part of why Asians just flooded in to high-grade US treasury bonds. The US military has military capacity that Detroit and Greece do not.

    If they have to invade Iran and confiscate “our American oil” to sell to cover US treasury debt, so be it. Detroit can’t bring that kind of “political will” to the bond market.

  • J R Fibonacci Hunn I’m not saying that Swiss government bonds or New Zealand’s bonds are always going to be stable and safe. They are subject to speculative bubbles too, but the Swiss are the center of the global banking “scam.” If you asserted that the EU is basically a siphon constructed by the Vatican and the Swiss to transfer the wealth of Europe through the Swiss to the Vatican, I would not argue with that. I value my life too much to attract bullets by making statements like that anyway. wink emoticon

    Switzerland is in the center of this “donut.” The EU is a funnel or siphon to enrich the Swiss bankers.

    https://i2.wp.com/…/70233000/gif/_70233868_eunames.gif

    i used that pic in this article called “living in a military empire”:https://jrfibonacci.wordpress.com/…/living-in-a…/

    I2.WP.COM
  • J R Fibonacci Hunn An Austrian Economics kind of intro piece:https://jrfibonacci.wordpress.com/…/benefiting-from…/

    Sometimes, a quick demonstration of a very obvious…
    JRFIBONACCI.WORDPRESS.COM
  • J R Fibonacci Hunn Simple criticism of Austrian Economists: they act like forming coercive mafias and then monopolizing the coercion to form governments is not a predictable and economically reliable approach. What libtards!
  • J R Fibonacci Hunn Here is a simple presentation for folks who do not know me and want to understand how investment markets are basically like sponges that slowly get saturated and then quickly squeezed out. That is how they transfer wealth so efficiently:https://jrfibonacci.wordpress.com/…/measuring-market…/

    Measuring market risk and opportunity Through this presentation, you will understand a key factor in…
    JRFIBONACCI.WORDPRESS.COM
  • J R Fibonacci Hunn Ben, you asked about a particular political intervention. Pension funds have a history of performing far below average. The complacency of those who run them is huge. There is almost no profit incentive for the fund managers. Astute investors, in contrast, have a history of performing above average.

    When someone is looking for an isolated long-term solution to the
    “problem” of market fluctuations, the big issue is that THEY ARE RELATING TO MARKET FLUCTUATIONS AS A ****PROBLEM.**** Pension fund managers, no offense intended, are pension fund managers because of their relatively low level of competence. They are attracted to social validation and groupthink to compensate for lack of comprehension of markets.

    There are NO highly competent fund managers working for pension funds to my knowledge. Why would a competent fund manager ever settle for working there?

  • J R Fibonacci Hunn Anyway, I started to make a point a while back and got distracted. It is possible that schools and the media program the masses to be hysterical about “what should not be” in order to distract the masses from the fact that “what should not be” has been “business as usual” for thousands of years?

    Train the masses to be ashamed of perceiving the simplicity of how governments work and what governments are. One by one, as the masses recognize different aspects of the current political corruption, they will reactively think “it was NEVER like this before. That ONE dude or group has BETRAYED us!!!!”

    Schools program blind conformity (and repression of emotions that are disruptive to the classroom and thus are labeled as shameful or negative). That produces widespread social anxiety and chronic physical tension to suppress the display of the “shameful” emotions (thus lots of PC libtards). Then, the leaders direct everyone’s attention to “important paranoias” like how cholesterol causes autism and how everyone should drop everything to promote equal rights for bisexual libertarian vegan pot smokers who insist that “they were just were born that way.”

    https://jrfibonacci.files.wordpress.com/2013/05/choices.png

    The image is from my 2013 article titled “homosexuality: a behavioral-choice-or-a-genetic-condition?”

    https://jrfibonacci.wordpress.com/…/homosexuality…/

    JRFIBONACCI.FILES.WORDPRESS.COM
  • J R Fibonacci Hunn If you feel left out because I have not said anything yet in this thread that insulted or upset you, I apologize. Please be patient. wink emoticon

    Also, you have to PM me. I want to meet you!

  • Gretchen Bronson J R Fibonacci yes with regards to MM I was referring to Money markets or other “Cash equivalents”. Now as part of a detour related to the Bond Market – Annuities. thoughts on those? I’ve got one through work and I’m considering rolling it into my 403b. I don’t have much of my 403b in MM, as a long term investor I’ve focused on 2050 time frame but wonder if there might be some validity given the current environment (geopolitical affairs) to rolling a portion into a MM/cash equivalent within my 403b structure….or take the tax hit, and clear all debt. DH and I have been discussing this for a while now… wondering when our money won’t be our money any longer……
  • Gretchen Bronson One thing that fascinates me about markets is how guys like Buffett pick something, and as the masses start buying, he sells. He’s been buying infrastructure for a while now, but not a lot of people have caught on to that…. which I find interesting.…. yet when he buys something like Apple, or MSFT, or Amazon… the masses flock… I need to go back and look at what his recent tech buys have been…. I want to say he hasn’t been buying a lot of tech…..
  • J R Fibonacci Hunn I consider most annuities contracts to be guarantees that the issuing insurance company will go bankrupt soon. The US financial sector was hit VERY hard a few years back for their hilarious risk-taking. Insurance companies are massive concentrations of risk.

    They are government-approved ponzi schemes that have no military to back them. They bring in premiums each month in the hope of covering their massive stack of unfunded liabilities. When they “bet wrong” with all of their gambling, they go down.

    FDIC is similar. The government insurance program for the Savings & Loans institutions collapsed in the 1980s. Insurance without a court system and military to enforce the guarantees is about as powerful as the ink on the paper of a condeferate dollar.

  • Gretchen Bronson hahaha…. which is why I’m looking to roll it into something…… I have a good chuck of change in there that I don’t want sitting around with TIACREFF goes belly up…
  • J R Fibonacci Hunn Regarding Buffett, I just republished this old article of mine (just for you Gretchen) and the links may not work but you can let me know of any interests and then I can give you access.

    http://lawyer-attorneys.net/x.htm

    BEST VALUE INVESTMENT: History?s most…
    LAWYER-ATTORNEYS.NET
  • J R Fibonacci Hunn also, GB, see my latest edits & additions 2 comments above
  • J R Fibonacci Hunn People with tax-deferred accounts like IRAs, 401Ks, and 403Bs can plan to ALWAYS take the maximum annual disbursement that does not incur a penalty. If you want to protect your account from something like what happened in Cyprus (when the government there froze the retirement accounts of the public and dipped in and then said “we will give you access again to your reduced account balance soon”), then get out.

    I recommend tax EXEMPT shelters. (Disbursements may be taxable as income, but any profits in the sheltered brokerage account are exempt from taxes).

  • Gretchen Bronson J R can’t access the results… link…. Economics isn’t my strong suit. but it pays to pay attention to what’s going on there with regards to larger geo-political issues… China’s instability is concerning, in that they might just be willing to step out of line… But the Economy I’m really interested in besides our own is India….
  • J R Fibonacci Hunn I can manage IRAs etc (even at your existing brokerage). Accounts with very few alternatives (only 5 funds or 12 funds) are not as attractive to me, but I will consider anything. My understanding is that usually the existing balance in a retirement account can be converted in to an IRA with no tax penalty.
  • J R Fibonacci Hunn If you do not know how to time markets (and are not partnering with someone like me), then cash is great during a deflation. Bond markets in the US eventually will panic, too.

    Yields on short-term US treasury notes just “improved” 12% overnight. That is “great” for existing bond-holders. However, that kind of volatility is “not good for amateurs,” like as far as wanting to sleep well.

  • Gretchen Bronson Then the question comes down to when you move annuities to a IRA do you continue with the Traditional IRA or move to a ROTH, and pay the tax now? I think it would depend upon the balance of the account, and if you’d prefer follow the traditional IRA’s tax and disbursement process….. As for Bonds, I’m currently not in them, though my parents are as they’re in their 70’s, though they’ve been converting more to cash as they get older…. that and they’ve got their “Automatic” withdrawals from their Traditional and Roth IRAs and pensions….
  • J R Fibonacci Hunn If someone (who is considering moving funds in to an IRA) is open to “paying the taxes now,” then why not convert to a tax-exempt shelter like a CRUT or CRAT? There is nothing wrong with “annuity contracts” in general. It is just the ones that most insurance companies sell that are “too good to be true.”
  • Gretchen Bronson Good point…. I’ll have to look into those… wasn’t thinking about that… I think my challege is that the vehicle I choose, my company must be able to pay in the 3% they match me on the annuity…. which is why I’m trying to figure out the best vehicle to move the annuity too…
  • J R Fibonacci Hunn You could just let the employer keep paying in to the account that is there, but move the old funds to the kind of shelter(s) that you like best. What I tell folks is that “if you are not using a tax exempt shelter soon, then after a few big gains, you might be motivated to get one before long.” Also, with CRUTs, it is so simple to pay the account manager (me), so generally that is what I recommend as my default and then there are the actual complicating realities of people’s lives, like divorces in progress etc…..
  • J R Fibonacci Hunn I “might” not be able to legally charge someone to write a CRUT for them, but it is totally legal for them to pay me an initial one-time fee to be their account manager. So, technically, I write the CRUT for free. wink emoticon
  • John Scott Major in additon to the above, some do not qualify for a Roth IRA, which really pisses me off.
  • J R Fibonacci Hunn To John, I give a nice framework in this article for why governments benefit from IRAs (and everything else that they give people incentives to use). I do not get in to any details (like that IRAs and 401Ks may legally give governments back-door access like in the case of Cyprus- which I referenced a few comments above), but the presentation linked below was intended to be pretty concise, so once the framework is clear, you can see how all the details that you already know “suddenly fall right in to place.”

    https://jrfibonacci.wordpress.com/…/benefiting-from…/

    Sometimes, a quick demonstration of a very obvious…
    JRFIBONACCI.WORDPRESS.COM
  • John Scott Major I understand why they have downsides, I just cannot understand why the government would restrict people from having a Roth? It hurts no one? In addition, I moved all my IRA money into cash last week because I predict the market is about to crash, and I am feeling pretty smart right now. (I am trying to not hurt my shoulder while patting myself on the back).
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