practical opportunism vs idealistic agonizing

House Republican Press Conference on Health Ca...

House Republican Press Conference on Health Care Reform House Republican Leader John Boehner (R-OH) (Photo credit: House GOP Leader)

“Which is more relevant to you- more economical to you- to invest your time in promoting that ideas about effective health care be spread to the masses (perhaps paid for by others through coerced taxes), or to invest your time in using effective health care methods? Beyond your physical health, which is more relevant to you: to invest your time in election campaigns and Keynesian interventions to prevent economic cycles (such as winter, spring, and summer) or to invest your time in benefiting from clarity about the reality of economic cycles? How about investing time in blaming others for their lack of initiative in regard to producing the results that you value?”

“Now, because I know that telegraphs are the best thing in the world and I know that I am right about that obvious fact, I am going to promote a government intervention to ban ridiculous technologies like telephones, which even Amish people are starting to use now, which proves that telephones are evil and bad for the environment. I want the government to make my favorite industry (telegraphs) stronger and steadier and wealthier- you know- for the good of the people and the environment and all of that stuff. We need to protect humanity from all threats to the telegraph industry, such as telephones, but perhaps also the postal system. We need brave, wise leaders to do what is right and to fulfill the final solution to permanently solve all of the problems of the masses and make heaven on earth. Keep that in mind next Tuesday when you cast your vote for the future of sanity.”

-Adolf Hitler, in his 1936 speech condemning the existence of the American Telegraph and Telephone company (AT&T). (…unless I was just joking there.)

chaospro_mandelbrot_110

chaospro_mandelbrot_110 (Photo credit: flickrnospam)

I will say a little now in general about my research of the last decade or so, including on the subject of economics, including personal economics or personal values and priorities (as in “psychology”). I can safely presume that much of what is below will be unfamiliar to most people reading this.

To anyone unfamiliar with economics, just ignore the brief references like the following. To anyone familiar with economic forecasting, my research has focused precisely on resolving the linguistic gap between what in economics is called “fundamental” analysis (supply, demand, etc) and “technical” analysis (basically, the measuring of momentum and trends).

There is absolutely no inherent reason for such a gap. It’s like people studying how trunks form in to limbs and then arbitrarily skipping to how little branches spread leaves. Between those two studies is the issue of limbs spreading in to branches, which is quite related to the other two studies. For people to study the two isolated areas but not what connects them is, in my opinion, unuseful (AKA retarded).
So, my research goes from linguistics to philosophy and then to history and “the law,” such as how units of currency are formed (and how they collapse), how markets are formed (and how they collapse), and so on. It is very ecological.

Then, I study what I call “garage sale economics,” which is related to “Austrian Economics,” but without the ridiculous anti-government idealism. (I may be something of an anarchist, but to ignore the existence of governments as economic organisms is plain stupid. Governments are, functionally, boundaries between herds. Even Alaska and Arizona can properly be studied as “herds.”)

Investment Conference

Investment Conference (Photo credit: Salmaan Taseer)

So, as a foundation of clarity, I include such things as geology, like the research of Dr. Hubbard (“peak oil”). Then, with a clear realistic recognition of some presumptions about basic physical realities and the language models that herds of people (including me) are using to interpret and relate to our presumptions about physical reality, we can then begin to study the contrarian socionomics of Elliott and Prechter, as well as the technical analysis measuring systems that have been trailblazed by folks like Pythagoras, Fibonacci, Gann, Mandelbrot, and John Nash (the subject of the move “A Beautiful Mind“).

Commerce and Politics and Propaganda are all predictable based on geology, geography, anthropology, psychiatry, and so on. Some fields predict large-scale patterns of behavior, with relative imprecision of course, (like the behavior of hurricanes or local weather) while other fields focus on predicting a particular individual, such as exactly how many units of alcohol will it take for an organism to pass out or die, which can be much more precise. With biochemistry, we could even venture to predict things like how the hormone levels of oxytocin will effect the precise behavior of a particular group of people “addicted to gambling” on borrowing money to speculate on flipping real estate (at least while all underlying circumstantial trends are stable)?

It is important to recognize that all prediction is based on presumption. If I predict local weather without recognizing that there is a hurricane 500 miles away but heading straight for me, that is not really a problem as long as I consistently re-evaluate the relevance of the presumptions that I am clear are only presumptions (models, labels, projections, etc).

Jazz Great Dr. Lonnie Smith

Jazz Great Dr. Lonnie Smith (Photo credit: Digiart2001 | jason.kuffer)

Another obvious thing is that when people have no competence in prediction, rather than refine their model of predictive presumptions (since they do not admit to having any idealistic presumptions), they tend to want to change reality to fit their ideals (“what should be, the right way for God to have already made my life”). When people have competence in prediction (and confidence in their competence), they tend to initiate leadership, like they want to participate in the opportunity of progress rather than resist it and avoid certain patterns and prevent them. You can tell a lot about someone’s competence in the art and science of forecasting by the language they use about it, such as “could we have predicted it (and, if so, could we have prevented it)?” It’s ignorant, frightened, and tends to arrogance, frustration, blame, animosity, and contempt.

“Why are all the <insert name of opposing political group here>so negative and disrespectful? Why the hell are those <expletive> people so frustrated? Why do they have so much <expletive> anger and contempt and arrogance? What’s the <expletive> problem with those people way over there that are so unlike reasonable, decent, respectable people like you and I?”

So, there is diversity and not equality. Get over it. The “equality” propaganda of the communists is the equality of slaves and of inmates, such that the elite bureaucrats have all of the power and the masses are all equal to each other in their relative economic powerlessness (AKA poverty).

Health Care sign L1000043

Health Care sign L1000043 (Photo credit: erlin1)

What is happening (in recent years) is simply an accelerating of a transfer of affluence from a huge number of speculative gamblers to a rather small number of prudent investors. What so many people really want to prevent (when they get in to political activism and so on) is the repeating of the abyssmal personal results they have experienced, such as revenue collapse, bankruptcy, fear and embarrassment. Do not forget that personal psychology is involved in all commentaries on economics (or anything else, politics, sports, how the NFL is handling the ref strike, etc).

As infrastructures collapse, such as in market panics, earthquakes, and war, we again notice that some people will be interested in things like blame, which reflects their shock and terror. Those who are blaming are actually looking for someone who will not crumble emotionally at their ridicule and aggression. They are socializing, chatting, coping.

King Abdullah ibn Abdul Aziz in 2002

King Abdullah ibn Abdul Aziz in 2002 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

I was recently accused of justifying various things like the existence of certain political systems and economic disparity.  I was not justifying that Alaska or Saudi Arabia contain more oil than Italy or Malaysia or Morocco. I am just acknowledging it. I am not justifying that some people own two cars and some people have never ridden in a car. I am also not guilty about the fact that in my life I have owned not one, not two, but, um, several cars.

I have seen statistics indicating that 99% of the population of humanity earns less than $35,000 per year. I am not justifying that the economic prosperity of the top 1% of humans has risen however much in the last 100 years or 1000 years. I am not justifying that the prosperity of the bottom ninety-nine percent has also shifted.

The average physiological health of a 25 year-old has plunged in the last ten thousand years, but as human population ballooned, more people started eating a lot of grains and thus suffering from all of the physiological (neuro-psychiatric) issues that correspond to that (such as the biochemical patterns that can be labeled “paranoid, hysterical, neurotic, self-stimulating distressful, agonizing” so common among civilized populations- and promoted aggressively by religions, public schools, and media programming).

Note again that I am referencing agonizing as a behavior. Why? Because it is useful to think of it as a behavior that someone can simply stop doing anytime by noticing the pattern of agonizing and then doing absolutely anything else (or even nothing at all).

Reality does not need fixing. The planet is much more resilient than humanity. As in the case of the black death of Europe, huge population collapses may be precursors to a sudden huge surplus of infrastructure relative to a greatly diminished population (AKA “the renaissance”).

Peace be within you. May ill will and idealistic agonizing cease and goodwill spread, such as this: “may your self-interested, practical opportunism go well, including any socializing that you choose to pursue in the form of agonizing dramatically about your favorite idealisms.” 😉

“Now, because I know that telegraphs are the best thing in the world and I know that I am right, I am going to promote a government intervention to ban ridiculous technologies like telephones, which even Amish people are using now, which proves that they are evil. I want the government to make my favorite industry stronger and steadier and wealthier- you know- for the good of the people and the environment and all of that stuff.”

Support HR 1207: Audit the Fed!

Support HR 1207: Audit the Fed! (Photo credit: r0b0r0b)

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