why is Greece in trouble?

reply to this news item http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/greek-charade-act-ii-europeans-keep-kicking-stocks-

Deutsch: Wappen Griechenlands seit 7. Juni 197...

Deutsch: Wappen Griechenlands seit 7. Juni 1975. Ελληνικά: Το εθνόσημο της Ελλάδας , καθιερώθηκε στις 7 Ιουνίου 1975 English: Coat of arms of Greece since 7 June 1975. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

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The core issue is the rising cost of non-renewable fossil fuels, especially crude oil. High fuel prices crippled Japan since the 1990s and now are crippling Europe (especially in certain regions of Europe) and, to a lesser extent, the US. I’ll say more on that in a moment.

By the way, Japan’s GDP to debt ratio is much higher than Greece, but they have not defaulted and their interest rates are down around 1%. The idea that deficits and inflation are two sides of the same coin is obviously false, since bond interest rates reflect not just expectations about inflation, but expectations about possible default on the debt, which is the connection to deficits. Defaulting on debts is DEFLATIONARY, not inflationary.

So, back to the simple and obvious issue, with improving technologies to access and refine crude oil, real prices of oil and gasoline (real prices means after adjusting for inflation as in across a variety of currencies) were flat or dropping for almost the entire 20th century. The exception was in the 1970s when the USSR first surpassed the US as #1 producer of oil in the world, plus the OPEC nations began their inevitable rise toward economic and political superpower (following in the footsteps of the two other countries that rose to global notoriety as the #1 and #2 producers of oil- the US and the USSR).

So, there is no rescuing Greece or the EU. They must reduce consumption of energy, just as Japan and the former Soviet Union have, and just as the US will, unless there a huge technological innovation replaces fossil fuels. Otherwise, the oil age is in the process of ending. As it does, the still oil-rich middle east will rise to dominate global economics and politics.

Published on: Jun 29, 2011

(Green) Greece. (Light-green) The European Uni...

(Green) Greece. (Light-green) The European Union (EU). (Grey) Europe. (Light-grey) The surrounding region. See also: Category:SVG locator maps of countries of Europe (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

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One Response to “why is Greece in trouble?”

  1. Friday Finance: Happy 2nd Anniversary of Greek Debt Crisis | The Wise- News, Content, and Publishing Says:

    […] why is Greece in trouble? (jrfibonacci.wordpress.com) […]

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