About WORDS

September 13, 2012

 

 

 

about words

 

Welcome to the About Words website. Below is a brief audio introduction to this site.

Did you know that one of the most popular words on the internet is God?

My Google Profile

LeBron: “loyalty is good and indoctrination is bad.”

September 11, 2019

True or false? 4-time MVP LeBron recently revealed his secrets for avoiding disappointment and maximizing happiness. He also gave some examples of how they make a difference (regarding health as well as finances). First, here are the secrets:

(1) Stay loyal to what you know.

(2) Condemn indoctrination of any kind.

Next, let’s explore some examples of how those secrets have made a difference in real life.

As you know, many institutions exist with the specific function of focusing attention on selected topics and then promoting certain ideas about those selected topics. So, let’s focus for a moment on schools in general and science classes in particular.

It is very important to put the word SCIENCE prominently on the cover of a textbook or the top of a piece of paper, like so that you can know whether a test is a science test or a math test. We need to know that this is not just a test about memorizing and repeating ideas blindly. Are these ideas that we have compared to systematic observations or critically examined in any way? If we put the word science at the top, then those issues do not matter because we call this class a science class and this test a science test.

So, yes it is a science test. It is short though. There is only one question.

Which one of the following two statements best applies to cholesterol:

A ) It is one of the most dangerous substances that has been discovered in the last 17 thousand years because many organisms have a liver (which is an organ that makes a lot of cholesterol whether you eat any cholesterol or not), so eating foods that contain cholesterol will definitely kill you. Don’t be naive!

B ) Cholesterol is an essential nutrient that is the foundation for many hormones such as estrogen and testosterone, plus is it an important component of the immune system, so it will often be found at the site of weak and injured tissues. However, it probably caused the tissue to be weak (obviously), so it is not hysterical paranoia to religiously use powerful and expensive drugs to attack your liver and thus reduce the liver’s ability to produce cholesterol. In other words, some cholesterol is good and some is bad, but all livers are fundamentally bad and frequently attacking as many livers as possible is the only way to avoid the long-term health challenges that would otherwise inevitably be produced by having a high-functioning liver.

Now, how do the above principles apply to this situation? All you need to do to know if the answer is A or B is to look in the sacred textbook of your religion and then repeat whatever is in there. This method will earn the social validation of your teacher and your classmates (all of whom are now or soon will be world-renowned experts on the important topic of cholesterol).

Furthermore, if you do well on this test, then you will also become an expert as well. So, you will not be open to wasting your time by considering competing ideas about cholesterol (because you already aced that one science test). If several decades have passed since you aced that science test, there probably has not been any significant developments in science since then, so do not confuse your google search (that leads you to actual research by actual PhD researchers) with the expensive medical degree that I earned in the 1980s or 1960s or whatever.

Also, while some brainwashed idiots may suggest that the rituals of science classrooms are indoctrination, that cannot be true. Indoctrination is wrong, so schools that I personally like would never do that. Plus, if you think about the accusers and conspiracy theorists behind those ridiculous accusations, you will find that they are the kind of people who do not listen to my favorite kind of music, meaning that all their ideas must be false and probably intended to mislead and confuse us (because they are conspiracy theorists, unlike me).

Next, let’s move on to the thoughts of 4-time dodgeball MVP LeBron Bernays on the very important topic of personal finances. Briefly, finances are a good thing.

Also, if you are familiar with allocating a portion of each paycheck to a mutual fund that is designed for people of your age group, be ferociously loyal to that idea. That practice is heavily promoted to lots of people and lots of people adopt it, so it must be the best option for you personally.

While some people claim that investment markets are reasonably easy to forecast (plus they point to a clear history of decades of reliable predictions), if these ideas are unfamiliar, then just ignore or reject them. Pension funds are safe because I want them to be safe. So, I do not need to consider how safe or risky they are because pension funds are familiar and indoctrination is wrong, which is why I condemn it.

As for the claim that in the 20th century there was a baby boom that was followed by a decline in birth rates, we know that is true because it is familiar. However, what about the idea that pension funds can predict how many of the employees that contribute to that fund are about to reach the age of mandatory retirement? That idea is either irrelevant or false or both.

No one knows how many years exactly it will take for someone who is now 60 to turn 65. It is basically a mystery, kind of like human health (and why any self-respecting liver would generate lots of something clearly poisonous such as cholesterol).

So, if the current amount of money coming in to a pension fund is far below the amount of money going out already to pensioners, that is probably just temporary. Any company can obviously just hire 300% more people so that the payouts from the pension fund to pensioners will never fall below the revenues in to the pension fund from current employees. If I am not currently familiar with any budget shortfalls for any pension funds, then that is because there are currently no shortfalls (and I sure as hell hope that there never are).

Just like no one can predict how long it will take for someone who is 60 to turn 65, no one can predict what financial changes those people might make when they retire. Will they stop pouring a portion of every paycheck in to a retirement fund? Maybe they will and maybe not- even though they no longer will have a paycheck.

Will they start selling their retirement investments and spending their savings? Maybe eventually, but that could literally take weeks (or even months). There is just no way to know.

How do I know that pension funds are stable and safe? Because if I have invested many thousands of dollars in to one, then I do not want it to collapse or go bankrupt.

Sure, I know that some pension funds have published reports saying that they do not expect to run out of money until 12 years from now. So what? I plan to retire in only 9 years (so I have nothing to worry about).

Plus, I got a B+ in one economics class 47 years ago, so obviously I am an expert on all current and future possibilities. Just to be sure, I even asked 2 of my co-workers what they were doing with their investments, and we are all doing basically the same thing. So, I expect us all to get above average results by doing exactly the same thing that the vast majority of other people are doing.

Now that we have thoroughly covered the secret to personal finances, let’s briefly consider the idea that mainstream institutions program the masses to value familiarity over prudence. First, that idea is unappealing to me. Okay, that about covers it.

My pension fund depends on the pharmaceutical industry growing hundreds of percent in the coming decades, therefore it must. What about allegations that makers of cholesterol-lowering drugs have invested in a deceptive campaign to demonize cholesterol? I do not want those allegations to be true, so they are clearly offensive and exaggerated and false.

Prudence is imprudent. Familiarity is prudent.

What I prefer must be true because I prefer it. If pension funds have some kind of an accounting problem, then they should just hire more or better accountants so they can fix the gosh darn problem, right?

Anyone who suggests that I might explore methods that are not already familiar to me is an insulting embarrassment. They should be ashamed of their lack of admiration for my established expertise in science class as well as in economics class.

I strongly recommend that you do not betray your loyalty to the holy institutions that could not have indoctrinated you to condemn indoctrination (because indoctrination is wrong and shameful). Do not explore ideas or methods that were not emphasized in your classes in grade school in the 1960s (unless they are featured in TV ads on a network that you like).

Therefore, everyone should buy silver because I like Ron Paul as well as David Wilcock. If silver prices rise, that is a clear signal to buy more. If silver prices drop, that is a clear signal to buy more. If prices do not change, keep pouring a portion of every paycheck in to purchasing silver because in the long run, silver prices fell about 90% from 1980 to 1999, so you know that it is safe today (and every day).

Before we switch to other important topics like ridiculing people who target above average results of any kind, let’s talk about one more thing. There is a deep state plot to indoctrinate a small group of amazingly intelligent people who are extremely resistant to the idea that they are actually quite naive. The targeted geniuses will be fed the emotionally-appealing idea that the deep state should be overthrown and the best way to do that is to subscribe to a certain twitter feed and then wait very patiently. Wait for what? Wait for the savior to overthrow the deep state while we sit in comfortable recliners and drink protein shakes. If you agree with me in this, that proves that you are highly intelligent like me.

Because George Orwell clearly said in his book 1984 that the deep state would never create a revolutionary front movement to entrap intellectuals, that is impossible. Plus, once again, I just do not like the idea at all.

Also, for the deep state to incite me in to contempt for the deep state would be ironic. Why would they want me to have contempt for them while I invest lots of emotion in to the idea of a political savior that will bring down the deep state? I am doing my part to bring down the deep state because I am wearing a MAGA hat. Yes, the hat was made in China, but it was made prior to the trade war thing, so it is okay.

My favorite political savior is going to defeat the deep state in a boxing match with one hand tied behind his back, plus increase employment by 900% to prevent the baby boom bubble from popping (like it already has in Europe and Asia), plus genetically engineer a superior type of liver that does not make poisonous substances like cholesterol. Anyone who does not agree with me 100% is probably a traitor or a Mossad agent or both.

In conclusion, not only should you buy lots of silver, but you should probably buy it from me. I will sell it to you for $20/oz. I am so sure that it will go to $50/oz very soon that I want to sell you all of my stash for only $20/oz.

So you can memorize the following for the pop quiz next week, here are those 2 secrets again:

(1) maintain ferocious loyalty to whatever is already familiar.

(2) champion the idea that indoctrination is a practice that should not ever be done by anyone or any group.

Review my recent predictions of reversals in major investment markets

September 1, 2019

For investors, here is a brief review of the last 9 months or so of my investments (across several major markets). In addition to showing several charts (of when I invested in what), I will conclude by referencing a few of the commentaries that I have published in the last 16 years.

If you find that you are interested in benefiting from my trading insights, I can either trade your funds within a pool or within your own private account (as your “authorized trader”). Contact me for details.

 

Generally speaking, my perception is that most investors greatly underestimate the risks of conventional investment strategies and also underestimate the benefits of strategies like mine. Mainly, we will focus here on my strategy and how it is distinctively beneficial.

Overall, my strategy features the occasional analysis of several major markets to identify which ones are strongest or weakest at any particular time. I attempt first to identify in advance the potential of a long-term reversal in each market. Second, I also attempt to identify specific short-term opportunities and trading signals. In this presentation, we will focus mainly on my recent record of identifying long-term reversals. At the end, I will link some relevant commentaries of mine from 2004 and 2005.

 

Again, my top priority when planning my investments is to identify significant price reversals before they start. By significant, I mean price reversals that will begin trends that will last at least for months if not years. Once I identify a probable reversal, I then position myself to profit from those “major changes in trend.” Knowing of probable trend changes before they happen is key for controlling risk as well as for maximizing profit potential.

First, we will quickly review the 3 of the 5 major markets that I occasionally trade with attention to which kind of position I entered across the last 10 months in each market (within a specific brokerage account that I opened on 10/4/2018). Those 3 markets shown below are US treasury bonds, the US stock market, and precious metals (primarily silver). For those who ask, I can also provide charts of my trades for crude oil and for the currency exchange rate between the Euro and the US Dollar.

While many people focus almost exclusively on the US stock market, that is obviously not my orientation. However, there are two periods of time in the last 10 months that I have made very distinctive statements about a high probability of a decline in US stock prices. For Facebook users, I am even posting a series of links to the specific comments of mine on Facebook in those two clusters of time:
period 1:
9/26/2019 – 10/4/2019
period 2:
7/19/2019
Facebook users can ask me to tag them in the thread to see the specific relevant comment (which is deep within the “thread” of comments):

spx 12 months with notes

You can also see the 18 days that I entered positions that profit from a rise in US stock prices. That includes a cluster of 5 straight days in December of 2018. Note that those were the best days in the last year to purchase US stocks. Across the first few months of 2019, I also entered “long” positions in the US stock market within a day or two of several short-term lows. Next, in late May, prior to a long rally in US stocks, there was 1 more day that I entered positions that are “long” US stocks. Last, during August 2019 there have been a few weeks of “bouncing” markets and I entered trades that were “long” the US stock market on several of those days.

tlt with notes
Next, within the US bond market, I entered trades a total of 19 days from October 2018 to June of 2019. The only 3 days that I entered trades “long” the US bond market are shown in a green oval. Again, that was the best period of the year to go long US bonds. Among the 16 days that I “shorted” the US bond market (shown in red), I also circled 5 days in a row of shorting US bonds at the very end of 2018.
slv

Concluding comments:

Generally speaking, I did quite well in identifying the main price reversals in those 3 markets within the last 9 to 10 months. If you are interested in benefiting from my trading insights, I can either trade your funds within a pool or within your own private account (as your “authorized trader”). Contact me for details.

Now, before we conclude, let’s consider some “bigger picture” issues. There was a baby boom in the middle of the 19th century. You are probably aware of it. As those people retire (and begin to sell their retirement investments, plus no longer add to them), I expect a “tide” of massive changes in many investment markets.

In fact, that tide has already manifested in many parts of the world. In Asia overall, stock markets peaked in 2007 and have generally fallen since then. In Europe overall, stock markets peaked in 2000 and have generally fallen since then.

 

What do I propose has kept the US economy ahead of those regions? Among other things, the US is the top producer of crude oil in the world. In contrast, much of Asia and Europe are extremely dependent on imported fossil fuels. That is why in 2008 prices of diesel exceeded $11 per gallon in parts of Europe.

 

Further, in my publications of 2004 and 2005, I specifically forecast that the rise in fuel prices that started in 1999 would continue. I explained exactly why I expected that rise to continue. I also explained what results I considered to be predictable (including a big downturn in lending markets that would result in a real estate decline, plus major destabilizations of mainstream financial institutions).

 

Item #1)

Navigating the New Economy, Lesson 1: “Worth its Weight in OIL”

J.R. Fibonacci
September 9th, 2005

Link to the original article:
http://321energy.com/editorials/fibonacci/fibonacci090705.html 

Item #2)

Are you affected by the real US deficit: oil?

November 7th, 2004

Reprinted version of that 2004 article:

Way back in 2004 I was bringing up issues that, within a few years, many others would also consider:

 

A key section in that article was when I made an analogy about what kinds of events could be expected globally because of major fluctuations in CRUDE OIL markets. I was referencing a specific past development as a clear warning for future potentials:

“Eventually, more delinquency on mortgages led to more foreclosures. With so many foreclosure auctions, most local housing prices dropped. People who had just refinanced their homes suddenly owed more than their homes would sell for, plus many had even less income than before. Bankruptcy rates increased.” 

 
Recall that within a few years, not only were lots of people concerned about rising fuel prices, but also about the exact set of developments that I had written about in 2004. (By the way, I can provide links to many other articles of mine across 2003 to 2008 in which I reference the events that manifested in 2007-2009.)

So, in addition to specifically forecasting many of the biggest changes in global markets in recent decades, I also have a clear record of anticipating smaller moves (multi-month moves). The basic point is that I know and respect some of the major “leading indicators” that precede major moves up AND down (across a wide variety of markets). In many cases, I even recognize very quickly that a specific trend change is likely to last years rather than only a few months. 

In fact, I can send you a link to a commentary of mine in early March of 2009 in which I forecast a significant rebound in US stock prices. That rebound began a few days AFTER that commentary (and has lasted for OVER A DECADE).

However, in my commentary prior to the start of that rally, I actually was not clear that the rally would last so many years. Still, as long as I can forecast even multi-month fluctuations, then there is no issue of “missing” the long-term ones. The short-term ones become long-term ones.

On that note, I have recently mentioned to several people that I expect the recent rally in prices of precious metals and US bonds to both reverse sharply (downward) and to decline not just for months but years. That is because the extremes in the data that I monitor are at “historic levels,” not just “multi-month extremes.”

As a sidenote for real estate investors, a multi-year decline in US bond prices corresponds to a multi-year increase in interest rates. That can be very bad for the real estate market (just as the last 4 decades of mostly declining interest rates has overall been fantastic for US real estate markets in that time).

Once again, if you are interested in benefiting from my trading insights, I can either trade your funds within a pool or within your own private account (as your “authorized trader”). Contact me for details.

photos of home to have garage built in Pflugerville TN

January 27, 2019
Inline image 1
Inline image 2

Recognizing and releasing self-defeating behaviors

January 20, 2019

What matters most for your health and wealth?

TOPIC: Recognizing and releasing self-defeating behaviors

First, I can recognize in my own history many occasions when I was aware of behaviors that I perceived to consistently produce favorable results, yet I did other things anyway (or simply “nothing at all”). I have even done many things that I expected would be “counterproductive” or at least wasteful. Is any of that familiar for you so far?

Eventually I got curious why I would form “self-defeating habits” and how to break those habits. As I witness similar behaviors in others, I naturally speculate and explore questions like “how do self-defeating behaviors become habitual and (perhaps much more importantly) how do those habits cease or get replaced with more functional patterns?”

I will jump right ahead to a few rather deep questions: what if I have a deep attraction to experiencing grief? What if I actually prefer (over some of the priorities or goals that I might claim) experiencing at least occasional helplessness, guilt, shame, isolation, or even despair?

What if behind all of that is a desire for others to notice me having those experiences and then “get involved?” What if I crave to be rescued, like as a validation that at least one or more other people relate to me as someone “worthy of being rescued?” What if I have been identifying myself (as in relating to myself) as someone whose mere existence
needs to be justified (in order to be worthy, deserving, acceptable, etc)?

 

To clarify, my interest here is the possibility that I might have been practicing thought patterns that have led to reduced effectiveness, plus that there could be a major improvement in my future effectiveness by removing or replacing those habits of thinking. Further, if those thought patterns are just habits, routines, or programs, then can I in solitude directly explore what may have been unconscious or semi-conscious thought patterns so as to improve them and the results that then get produced? (Or, in contrast to me directly exploring them alone, would involving other people in my exploration be preferable or even essential?)

The issue of solitude (or partnership) bridges in to a key issue. Have I been thinking in ways that lead me to avoid effective partnership (or to avoid solitude and any effectiveness that might result from that)? Have I been targeting partners that would lead to disappointment for me? Or have I even been neglecting or compromising partnerships that otherwise might have been far more productive?

In the moments of me typing these sequences of words, I do so in private, though with an expectation of sharing these words with others (and probably in a rather public way online like on social media). That detail reminds me of many experiences of gratitude from repeatedly finding great value in content that I encountered online (either by researching for it directly, by “stumbling upon” it while exploring something else, or by seeing it when someone else shared it “randomly” on social media).

When I first considered making this post, I thought to note that it might seem surprising that I would focus much at all on the topic stated here (of updating ineffective thought programs) instead of simply promoting some of my breakthroughs. Why not just publicize once again my recent 70% gains in under 3 months (or promote my latest discoveries in cutting-edge health treatments that mainstream health practitioners are too busy / too wealthy to explore or develop)?

Repeatedly, I have been surprised at how uninterested so many people seem to me to be in those results (and methods). So, I keep getting curious about why so many people seem so much more interested in other pursuits, such as condemning particular ideas or political celebrities (rather than in investing in directly promoting their own well-being).

Further, what I observe in others reminds me of me (whether in my distant past or quite recently). Why would we invest so much time in condemning distant targets or vilifying ideas that we claim to consider to be not just unintelligent but unworthy of our time?

“Those other people over there should not waste so much time complaining about which people waste the wrong amount of time focusing on the wrong topics in the wrong ways. They are basically ruining my life by victimizing me with their MANY faults, especially their lack of a sense of humor.

Instead, they just keep investing their time in ways that lead them to neglecting an awareness of how much time they are investing and of the results of those investments. They seek an ongoing flood of emotional drama and controversy to distract them from perceptions that are much more personally humbling and frightening.”

As I said at the very beginning, my own history contains many occasions when I was aware of behaviors that I perceived to offer superior results, but I did those things less than I could have (or only weeks or months after my initial perception of their superiority). But so what? I’m mainly just interested in that detail as a bridge to exploring how to release ineffective habits and develop more beneficial ones.

I certainly could comment a lot on how we get influenced or even programmed to adopt certain habits of thinking, presuming, interpreting, and perceiving. I may be quite brief though, for I expect brevity to be most efficient. I want to quickly  get to “what to do instead.”

 

Imagine that there are a few possible social systems that could form (in this case, among humans). Could we rank a few contrasting social systems in regard to how efficiently they influence lots of organisms to generally sacrifice their own interests to promote the stability and expansion of that social system?

At least during certain periods of time, is it logical that any system that produces lots of devotion and conformity and self-sacrifice will generally tend to “outperform” any other systems? Potentially least robust would be systems that effectively promote functional independence and social diversity (and here I do not mean “lip service” to a particular ideal of diversity, but actual diversity or variety of behaviors and ideas), right?

However, I expect that there could be a cycle (or alternating “waves”) in which totalitarian religions and governments do well for a while, followed by times when experimentation and innovation “outperform” (in contrast to being neglected, ridiculed, penalized, or entirely prevented). As a side note, as I see social waves of ridicule of people for allegedly “rejecting science,” I notice that some of the most passionate critics seem to me to cling to programmed dogmas about science that are pseudo-scientific at best.

When the pro-conformity messages extend to ridiculing “all religious traditions,” that is itself to me just another religion of contempt, ridicule, and of course blind conformity.
When the “glorious champions” of mainstream science ridicule the possibility of dissent or controversy among science enthusiasts, that is to me an ironic avoidance of actual scientific inquiry.

 

So, here are some attributes that might fit an “ideally-efficient social system” during certain periods of time at least:

1) the vast majority of the public is far from satisfied (even deeply discontent or in despair), but extremely ashamed of their own experience (and thus chronically anxious about hiding it or reflexively justifying it with socially-acceptable rationalizations, such as being victimized by someone else or by “fluke” circumstances).

2) A popular perceived solution to their shame and anxiety is to devote themselves to reforming the political system toward fulfillment of specific programmed ideals (like “liberty” or “universal basic income”) through specific programmed methods (like voting for a better Prime Minister or donating more money to lobbyists who will finally bribe the ruling Monarch in to “doing the right thing”). Instead of improving their own results through refining their methods, they invest in reforming the policies and results of their rulers. If they dare to talk about “going to another political jurisdiction where the policies are FAR more attractive,” they do so with anxious guilt about “abandoning” the “holy cause” of the government to whom they “owe so much.” (Also, in places where the core principles of national socialism are dominant, the more that a citizen  has been forced to contribute financially to a social welfare program, the more that they hope to receive benefits when they retire… which leads us to the next issue.)

3) the vast majority of the public experience multiple forms of dependency. For instance, they may be chemically dependent on several prescribed medications, psychologically
dependent on future government benefits (like social security), and financially dependent on their current job and credit. Even those who are in fact relatively wealthy will perceive themselves as “close to the edge of embarrassment.”

4) Experiencing themselves as “dependent,” their primary hopes are for first of course defending any present external support structures and second expanding them. So, how will they predictably experience any data suggesting that an “entitlement” program is nearing financial insolvency or political collapse? They will carefully attempt to filter it out (so as not to deal with it). Then, if confronted with it, they will fiercely resist and ridicule it.

5) Being so emotionally dependent on external social validation, they will also devote themselves to rigorously defending their prior choices and their current biases (as in their current patterns of action and their current conceptual presumptions, of which they will likely claim to have none).

 

Next, consider the issue of bias as it applies to prices in investment markets. The more that the social system can get the masses to invest in the same things, the more that prices of those things will soar.

Gamblers gathered around a table playing a card game like poker do not all cheer because the pile of chips in the center of the table is growing to historic extremes.  They each celebrate individually when moving a big pile of chips from the center in to their own pile.

However, mainstream investors have been programmed to relate to rising stock prices as being completely unlike a growing pile of chips in the center of a table of poker players. Until they sell their assets, the current market price of their assets is relatively trivial. Until a poker player moves the chips from the center to their own pile, the number of chips in the center may be intriguing, but not more intriguing than looking at what cards are in your own hand.

Also, poker games require ongoing investments in order to reach the end and a possible “profit.” To continue to have a chance at a big profit, it takes bigger and bigger investments to “keep playing.” What is more important to how much more one should invest in this hand of poker: the amount of chips currently in the center of the table or the “quality” of the combined cards in your hand?

 

So, what action drives up prices of a particular stock? More buying than selling.

What other action drives up prices of stocks? Nothing.

Among stock market investors, everyone is not getting rich together. It is the same with poker players. The growing pile of chips is not everyone getting rich. It is everyone risking more and more.

For stock market investors, they are not all spending their way together to mutual prosperity. They may all be increasing their risk levels. Someone will profit when the masses all dump funds in to a particular stock and drive up prices.

However, the mechanism for their profit is that they will sell to someone else (who provides the wealth that the seller moves from the center of the table to their own private pile). There is no magic creation of value in stock markets. There is simply transfer of wealth, just like at a poker table.

 

As simple as these realities are, like for a ten year-old child to comprehend, try telling it to someone who in recent decades has invested $50k or even $500k in to mutual funds or other stock holdings (or is expecting a pension fund to be solvent in 10 years or 20 years). Their resistance and distress at simple realities can be enormous.

But they are not the extreme case. The extreme case is real estate speculators.

These people might invest several thousand dollars of their own funds while borrowing hundreds of thousands of dollars that they promise to repay over a few decades. Then they all pour in to real estate markets and watch the pile at the center of the poker table grow and grow.

They may be taking actions that historically are clearly evident to be occasionally catastrophic to their personal finances (or the finances of the corporation or pension fund that they operate). But they are conceptually “blind” to the basic realities of what is driving up real estate prices.

More buying than selling is the only thing that drives up prices, just the same as how the pile at the center of a poker table grows. Everyone is not making each other rich. Everyone is making each other more and more enthusiastic and confident, but in a delusional way.

When a few people want to sell real estate or stocks, that just creates a tiny influence on overall market values. However, what if 20% of the homeowners in your town all list their home to sell at the same time? What happens to prices?

What if 50% of the homeowners in your town all try to sell at once? What if 100% all try to sell at once?

 

Again, the only source of profit from speculating in real estate or stocks is the next wave of buyers. There is no other source.

If that next wave is smaller than expected (or does not happen at all), then prices drop or even plunge. That is not because the physical real estate lost practical value (like a hurricane ripped off the roof). That is simply because there was never any lasting significance to the current size of the pile of chips in the center of the poker table.

Retirement investors often just dump a portion of their paychecks in to the center of that pile. They may never look at the details of what they are investing in (as in never looking at the cards in their hands). They may not even think about the possibility that the size of the central pile is a totally distinct issue from the quality of the cards on which they (or the managers of the 401K funds) are betting / gambling / investing / speculating.

They simply look a few times a year (or less) at the growing pile of chips in the center. They actually may think that those chips in the center of that poker table are effectively their own private stash of chips.

But all of them cannot be correct about that. They all see how much everyone else has been dumping in to the central pile.

They look at the market value of their real estate. They look at the market value of their IRA or 401K. They look at the amount of chips in the center.

 

 

They are like poker players saying “there are four people playing this hand of poker and I put in about 25% of the chips in to that central pile, so I can count all the chips in the center and divide that number by four and call it mine.” That is delusional. No poker players do that.

But that is basically what stock market investors do. They see current market prices, multiply by that by the number of shares they hold, then think of it all as functionally identical to holding that amount of cash. That is inaccurate (as in delusional).

Everyone cannot sell their stocks at once without market prices collapsing. Same for real estate.

And pension funds have been dumping assets negligently in to stock markets and real estate for decades. But for now, let’s just focus on the detail that I personally see the current situation in investment markets as the biggest opportunity in modern history.

In contrast, the same opportunity that I am very clear about (and have seen lots of statistics to measure how historically extreme it is) will likely be ignored by the vast majority of people already invested in to markets that they HOPE are stable. The more invested financially they are in to any particular market, the more psychologically invested they are likely to be in avoiding or discounting contrary evidence.

The more resistant they are to clear realities (and to clarity about those realities), the more they will avoid or even ridicule those who dare to challenge their presumptions about how all the poker players are going to get rich together. “Look,” they may say, “the central pile is getting bigger, so that proves that everyone at this table is getting richer the more that we move chips out of our own private stash and toward the central pile!”

In fact, they may complain that when their investment strategies clearly do poorly, the problem is that there are too many people who ruined “my finances” by not playing poker at “my” favorite table (whether that table is bitcoin, gold, real estate, tech stocks, marijuana stocks, or something else). Perhaps the real problem (according to them) is that there is more than one table and the government should come in and properly fix this situation, right?

What if the primary function of certain government programs is to present the idea to the masses that the government can fix a certain issue (and will do so in the immediate future)? Again, note that in the prior sentence I made no reference to actually creating any result other than presenting a particular idea.

You could invest in the next promises of political salvation from basic economic realities. Or, you could invest in a partnership with someone who has demonstrated the unusual profitability of applying certain very simple principles.

Will a government reform create a new influence on stock prices to solve the “problem” of the possibility of rapid decline in market values caused by selling? That may be promised. Over and over and over, in direct conflict with an abundance of actual evidence, that idea may be promoted so well that many naive investors
all count the pile of chips in the center of the table as “mine alone.”

If it was a poker game, one may have a pair of threes in their hand and another has a pair of fives. But they do not look at their cards and instead they both say to each other “it is a very complicated thing to evaluate the quality of the cards in one’s hand because the rules of poker are very mysterious, right?”

They just keep dumping money every paycheck in to the central pile. They just keep counting the chips in the center and relating to all of those chips as “mine alone.”

Are they all getting rich together? Or all they all piling in to enormous risks together?

What if there were groups who designed campaigns to promote certain perceptions in the general public? Why would they go to the trouble of creating
huge bureaucracies to publicize certain ideas or presumptions or doctrines or dogmas? Why would they invest huge amounts of money in to those
publicity campaigns?

Are those groups trying to help everyone get rich together? Or, might those groups be investing in the value of biasing the masses?

Who should you and I bet on (or bet against)? For most retirement investors, they have already placed their bets (though they could
easily change their bets). But most of them are remarkably resistant to changing their bets. Most of them will continue to take actions
that generate profits for the prudent and produce catastrophic losses for the rest.

Should it be this way? Oh no, it certainly should not!

It should be whatever way the publicity campaigns program the masses to believe that it should be. Any day now, political salvation will be delivered right to your door like a dead lizard brought by a house cat as a gift to you.

All we need to do is have faith. The new political savior will be victorious, so we must be very patient (and do not do anything to move our investments from the center of the table to our own private stash).

The more you invest in a particular strategy, the more biased you may be to continue to invest in it – as in without regard to the actual results produced by that method (or without regard for contrasting results produced by contrasting methods). In fact, there are no other methods than loyally waiting for the (political) savior to rescue you.

You know the savior that I mean. I obviously do not mean the alleged savior of the idiots who disagree with you. After all, we know that they are idiots as established by the fact that they disagree with you on certain things, right?

So, what exactly shall we do to those who tempt you away from being a glorious patriot who patiently waits for salvation? Those crazy fanatics should be avoided, ridiculed, and then beheaded (though perhaps not in that specific order).

You owe it to society to loyally dump chips in to the center of the poker table as fast as you receive them. You can be part of the glorious achievement of driving up stock prices (or real estate prices, bitcoin prices, etc) to new levels. Wouldn’t that be a wonderful thing for millions of people to put on their headstones at their gravesites?

In conclusion, there is no such thing as a self-defeating pattern. We will all get rich together by pretending that there is some other source of rising prices than buying. To clarify, by ignoring that delusional idea that buying raises prices, we will all get rich together. In other words, together, we will all get rich by ridiculing a long list of things that obviously do not exist (or at least, according to certain publicity campaigns, should not exist).

 

As a final side note, I have about $4 trillion of real estate that I am selling because it will definitely be worth 6 or 7 trillion really soon, so let me know if you are interested in getting in on the safest and simplest profit in history. After all, real estate prices always rise because they never decline.

Or, if you think stocks are the way to go, I have a few trillion of that stuff and you should buy all of them right away because stocks always rise in value too, right? Or, if you like Barrack Obama, he told me last week that he is pouring his assets in to bitcoin because it may not always rise in value, but it will definitely bring down the Federal Reserve (probably within the next 72 hours), and he just feels an obligation to his children and grandchildren to do the right thing, right?

A brief analysis of my trades in 4 markets this quarter (which produced profits of over 70 percent)

December 30, 2018

Below is some content that I emailed several people yesterday, then the brief reply of 1 correspondent, then my longer reply to him.


This is a quick update to my prior report on 12/7.

The account that was up 26.3% on 12/7 is up to over 73% as of yesterday (12/28). I opened it on 10/4: http://allycm.com/actual-results.php

The account that was up 53% went up to 77% as of 12/17 (and, as I make some changes for the new year, that account has been “liquidated to 100% cash” to remain at a 77% gain). I opened it on 11/9 (so those big gains took only 6 weeks): http://allycm.com/77-percent-gains-from-Nov-9-to%20Dec-17.php

FYI, I can document more than 15 years of my publications of accurate long-term forecasts. That includes calling the “bottom” of the global stock market decline in March of 2009 (which I published a few days BEFORE the final low in US stocks).



Great work man!!! This stuff make me nervous with the crazy market for sure!!!


 

Thank you. As most investors begin to get nervous, I get even more interested in “the data.” Those who invest with me will benefit along with me.

As of late September, I was clear that the US stock market was near a reversal that was even more obvious to me than the 2007 high or the 2009 low (both of which I also publicly forecast). In the last 3 months, there have also been 3 other investment markets that showed enough evidence for a price reversal that I entered trades (and almost of all of have been profitable). Below are charts of the 4 markets and my timing.

US Stocks:
image.png
(The reason I emphasized the red section- in regard to the fact that on 12/20 I was already taking positions for a large rise in stock prices-  is because 12/26 was one of the largest point gains in the history of the US stock market. However, As of Friday 12/28, I actually have already reversed position AGAIN, expecting another downward acceleration of stock prices in the US and internationally.)
Silver:
image.png
(I am still positioned for a further rise in silver prices.)

US Treasury Bonds:

image.png
(In this case, I entered this market 2 days BEFORE the actual low… and it took almost 3 weeks before I had a decent profit. I target getting in early and getting out early- long before the majority of investors are concerned about that market reversing.)
Forex (EUR:USD exchange rate)
image.png
(Though I have reduced my initial exposure to this market, I remain in position for a much larger and longer rise.)

 

How global fuel prices and baby boomers led to my 77% gains in 6 weeks

December 25, 2018

I tend to be skeptical when people claim an interest in “economic literacy” (or in “prosperity”). Many people seem strongly committed instead to defending their prior biases and choices. However, what about when the data does not fit the presumption / dogma?

First, people seem to me to focus too much on secondary “investment” markets and not enough on primary “economic” markets. Below is an example of what I mean by that. (By the way, a big reason that I made 77% gains recently in 6 weeks was because IN ADDITION to focusing carefully on investment markets, I respect basic economics as well.)

So, when gas prices go way down, what do people say in response? Many people say “awesome- what a relief!”

However, when gas prices passed $11 per gallon in parts of Europe in 2008, many people said “I just can’t continue my old patterns… and I might even get an electric vehicle.” They are responding to “economic fundamentals” (lower prices attract more buying and higher prices attract less buying).

However, many people do not know the BIG long-term issue in fuel markets (because they invest their attention instead mainly on financial speculations). I will cover that issue further down.

////

Before we get to that, note that opposite to “economical thinking” is the thinking of mainstream investors in regard to what they buy. When asset prices have been rising for a long time, many people say “great… I will plan to borrow a few more hundred thousand dollars to speculate more aggressively on more rising prices in the future.” Then, when prices eventually go down, the first response after all that enthusiasm / mania is “this is fine… I clearly should immediately buy even more now that prices have dipped.”

That kind of thinking is evidence of a speculative financial bubble. I have seen it in real estate, stocks, bitcoin, gold, and so on.

Mainstream speculators totally ignore the issue of “economizing” most of the time, then when convenient in the service of their pre-existing bias / dogma, they briefly give some “lip service” to the principles of long-term economic patterns. For instance, if I offer to show them data that “this latest dip might not be brief,” how interested are they in preserving >$100k of equity in real estate (or in an IRA)? In some cases, perhaps “not at all” (at least not yet).

So, to the vast majority of people investing in mainstream investment markets, those markets are VERY “secondary” even to those investors. Those markets will never be as important to their everyday lives as buying fuel month after month (or buying groceries, etc…). Those “secondary” markets are for “excess capital for investing” (such as their retirement funds).

Even with real estate speculators (as in anyone who expects to eventually resell property at a higher price), their expectations may be greatly divergent from the actual data. What data? Outside of 1996-2006, real estate prices in the US overall have barely kept pace with inflation in recent decades. You might not want to see the data, but I could show you the chart (and you could easily find it yourself).

////

Moving on, I mentioned above a big long-term issue in fuel markets. There are a few ways to present the issue, so here is the what I consider the most concise: decade after decade, INFLATION-ADJUSTED fuel prices were dropping in the US (among other places), but… that has changed.

The all-time low in gasoline prices (when adjusting for inflation) was 1999. Gas prices increased quite a bit in to 2008, then fell and “bounced around” since then.

Since 1999, oil prices went from $11 per barrel to $148 per barrel, then down to about $30, then bounced for a while as well. (Very recently, they have been plunging, as shown in the chart below.)

I wrote about the importance of fuel prices a lot starting in 2004. I also have repeatedly said since 2009 (after fuel prices had plunged) that fuel prices would eventually rise again. Specifically, I predicted that they would recover enough to create destabilization in “secondary markets” of real estate speculation, stock market speculation, and even speculation in things like bitcoin and gold.

So, what exactly do we see in the chart below? That is 3 years of time and two markets.

The faint tan line tracks the trend of stock prices for a group of 500 big companies in the US (a.k.a. “the S&P 500”). The prominent black line is the global price of crude oil.

Most notable to me is that the prices of US stocks started to fall PRIOR to global fuel prices (crude oil). That fit with my presumption for a repeat of the pattern in 2007-2008: that fuel prices would eventually rise enough to “break the speculative bubbles” in “secondary markets.”

In fact, another chart I could show is for stock prices worldwide, which peaked in January of 2018… which was LONG before the decline began in global oil prices. Real estate markets in some parts of the US had also weakened long before the recent peak in oil prices (though not yet in a clear overall decline). Bitcoin’s bubble popped late in 2017. Gold’s bubble popped way back in 2011.

FYI, stock markets in Asia overall have been down since 2007. In Europe, the all-time high in stock markets was way back in 2000.

////

Next, besides the issue of fuel prices, another “long-term economic issue” involves population trends (“demographics”). Basically, in many parts of the world that were involved in World War 2, there was a baby boom of high birth rates (that later declined).

As that generation retires, they begin to cash in their retirement accounts to spend on their actual retirement. Apparently, the younger generations in the workforce are not pouring in equal amounts of capital in to their retirement accounts. More selling than buying results in declining prices (whether of stocks or anything else).

Even without the issue of fuel prices worldwide, the issue of the retiring of baby boomers globally is another big factor in my long-term forecasts. As for those who “defend their pre-existing bias” that hyperinflation will “balance everything out,” where is the data to back that up?

In contrast, I can point to the case of Argentina, where stock prices plunged in 2018 even as the currency there was losing massive amounts of purchasing power. Did their huge national debt lead to massive inflation? Yes, but asset prices still plunged.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4183072-argentinas-stock-market-risky-risk-worth-taking

I can also point to Japan, where stock prices peaked in 1989. Did their massive national debt lead to a plunge in purchasing power of their currency? No, the Yen deflated (increasing in purchasing power). Plus, stock prices plunged to 7200 Yen in 2009 from a high of about 39000 Yen in 1989.

What most “insulated” Americans overlook is that the US has a massive advantage over most of world by being the #1 producer of crude oil. Why did US stocks rise so much since 2009 compared to the majority of Asia and Europe? Places that spend billions of dollar per day importing fuel must either balance that cost with exports… or eventually they will not be able to afford to import billions of dollars of fuel per day.

How did global oil prices plunge from $148 to $30 so fast after the 2008 peak? Did the economies of many parts of the world greatly reduce consumption? How about the EU, Japan, China, and India?

Fuel consumption did fall, but not really by much (or for very long). Here’s some data:

https://www.indexmundi.com/energy/

But in Europe, fuel consumption from 2006-2016 was down. It is the type of development that had not been considered by mainstream investors and analysts.

To confirm the data, see page 8 of this PDF:

https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/en/corporate/pdf/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2018-full-report.pdf

Also, data on page 11 shows that coal and oil have been losing “market share” to natural gas for a LONG time. What would happen to the economy of various nations if those prices rise from current levels ($4) to prior levels ($15)?

That would be (relatively) unfavorable for importers and favorable for producers (places where natural gas is extracted), right? That is the same differential that is evident in other fuel markets like coal or oil (or electricity generated as nuclear, hydroelectric, wind, etc).

So, my perspective is that without a MASSIVE and rapid shift toward the widespread use of a much less expensive (and sustainable) fuel source, the retiring of the baby boomers worldwide will “pop all of the speculative bubbles.” I do not expect one. I could be wrong though.

Will there be a huge advance in energy technology coming (or already underway)? That is certainly possible…. although without WIDESPREAD implementation of a technology of that kind, I continue to expect a specific series of major changes in global economics (and politics).

For investors: better returns, no management fees, and better tax sheltering

December 15, 2018

For those interested in my investing services (managing your private IRA account etc), this is an edit of a private email I just sent someone on that topic: /////

Hi, as for getting “better returns” (than what you have been getting lately with your 401K, IRA, and robo-trading from Betterment), “better returns” is my primary specialty. Plus, perhaps I can make some useful comments on some of the other issues you raised. First, I will make a couple quick points on those other topics.

Regarding management fees, I have not built my “authorized trader” service around typical “management fees.” Instead, I simply use a profit-sharing model. In other words, there would never be any “out-of-pocket” cost to you at all (in the sense that your only expenses are already covered by the prior profits generated).

As for taxes, I generally recommend that people consider maximizing their use of tax shelters such as IRAs and tax-exempt trusts (such as “charitable remainder trusts”). CRTs are similar to Roth IRAs in terms of sheltering the ongoing investment profits from taxes, but without the typical restrictions of Roth IRAs (especially when it comes to receiving money from out of an account prior to age 59 & 1/2 – or whatever they change it to as time goes on).

Another nice thing about CRTs is that the implications for your personal tax returns would be extremely simple (since they are not subject to “early withdrawal penalties” and related documentation). Further, CRTs also offer a potential tax deduction when you create them. If that is not appealing for tax year 2018, then of course we are only 2 weeks from 2019….

Next, for any funds you can control, my current strategy would be to set me up to trade anything that can be traded (such as the IRA) and to shift anything else to cash / “near cash equivalents” (money market or very short-term treasury bonds). With 401Ks, people often have very limited alternatives within that structure, so you can just either “park” those assets in to cash for now or “roll over” the 401K, probably in to a “traditional IRA.” As for robo-trading through Betterment, I am not a fan….

As for your current positions, they are rather different from mine (with a minor exception in regard to metals). As I have noted on facebook in a few places, I have been taking some positions in SLV and USLV lately (and in fact I currently hold a few shares of GLD). Other than metals, I have been primarily “shorting” a few of the major indices of the US stock market plus taking a series of short-term “long positions” in US bonds (though I currently do not hold any). Some examples are in this link: http://allycm.com/order%20history%20for%20account%20opened%20November%209%202018.php

Ultimately, regarding “better returns” in particular, I’m not sure what you comments of mine that you have seen or not. I posted yesterday on Facebook that an account I opened on 10/4 had exceeded a 32% percent gain as of late Friday. The week prior, it was up “only” 23.6%, and the sudden large profit was mainly based on taking advantage of a notable “set-up” that I had posted about on Thursday while markets were open. (As you probably know, I consider Friday’s market activity to be only the latest wave of much larger developments).

As another example, on 12/8 (a week ago), I posted that another of mine just passed a 50% gain in just under 1 month (since the account was opened on 12/9). The link above is for that account.

The methods used in each of those accounts are a bit too aggressive for most IRA investors (though generally legally-compatible with IRA accounts). So, the main “take-away” point is that in the last month or two, overall I “nailed” the drops in stock prices plus the more recent rallies in bonds and metals.

For now, I will also make just a very brief reference to my published forecasts going back to 2003. I gave lots of warning about the crisis of 2006-2009, detailing in advance what would happen regarding global fuel prices, stock markets, and lending markets (which in turn produced huge changes in real estate prices). I also published forecasts of the stock market rebound that started in early 2009- just days before the “bottom” in US stocks.

So, I have been trading for a long time (since 2002) and I have learned a lot in that time- even though my long-term forecasting has been quite solid from the start. I also am very clear what my presumptions are regarding any particular forecast or strategy, which is very useful in case the presumptions later get violated.

The most notable example to me is that when I forecast the rebound in global stock prices in early 2009, I did not anticipate that crude oil production in the US would triple within just a few years. In fact, I expected it to continue to drop. The huge increase in US crude oil production violated one of my key presumptions and resulted in that rebound lasting MUCH longer than what I had referenced in early 2009 prior to it starting. Further, that huge increase in oil production was not just a massive benefit to the US economy and stock market, but also internationally.

However, all developments are temporary. So, just as stock markets in Europe has not yet recovered to the point of their highs in 2000 (or Japan’s in late 1989), I expect similar developments in the US. I expect the highs of 2018 in US stocks to hold for not just years but decades.

To me, current conditions presents the most lucrative opportunity in my lifetime- apparently far more profit potential than the 2007 “crash.” Unless there is a MAJOR shift in the global energy market (as in the widespread use of a technology that renders fossil fuels obsolete), I expect the tide of retiring baby boomers to… sell. Stock prices (and many prominent financial institutions) are poised to be “crushed.”

Incidentally, my own long-term targets include relocating outside of the continental US (or at least having plenty of financial independence to do so in the event that I desire it). I would not surprise me if you had similar interests.

Let me know your thoughts and interests.

My HUGE investing profits (& why to diversify away from construction… even if business is booming)

October 28, 2018

The short answer includes a few short, simple details:

1) Better profits… are better. (I’ve made a series of enormous profits recently and below I will tell you how much you can benefit from the same methods.)

2) Times change. (What will matter next year is which markets will be booming then, not which markets were hot in prior years.)

3) NAHB’s builder confidence index recently exceeded 2005 levels. (Below, I’ll show you that high levels of builder confidence correlate to long-term declines in real estate sales volume as well as real estate prices. So, the peaking in late 2017 of builder’s confidence predicted the subsequent declines in volume and prices throughout 2018.)

4) US real estate markets are already weakening. (Below, I will provide several statistics showing clear declines in US real estate markets.)

5) Borrowing is what has been driving up real estate values. (Further, borrowing trends have already clearly reversed from the rebound that started ten years ago.)

6) The final reason to diversify away from the construction industry is because I recommend it. (Why you should you care about what I say? One big reason is that I published clear forecasts of the prior declines in global prices of real estate and stock prices, plus of the spike up in global fuel prices. In fact, I also published clear warnings in late September of 2018 of the large declines in global stock prices that have happened in the subsequent weeks. By the way, my prior awareness of the very high probability of big drops in US stock prices is a big part of how I recently made triple-digit profits in just a few weeks. See below for details.)

 

1) Better profits… are better.

From 10/3 to 10/27, I traded two of my own brokerage accounts in two very different ways. While the overall US stock market dropped by 10%, my larger account went up by 7.5%. Further, my smaller account went up by over FIVE HUNDRED PERCENT.

So, if better profits are better, then why didn’t I use all of my funds for the method that profited hundreds of percent in a few weeks? Because there was only a high probability that my forecasts were accurate, not absolute certainty. Plus, I promised my wife that in the account with the larger starting balance, I would trade very conservatively with a relatively modest target of annual profits that exceed our highest interest rates in our credit card (as in over 20% per year).

How am I doing so far? If we take my gains on the conservatively-traded account for the last 24 calendar days and then for simplicity call that “one full month,” what would eleven more months like that produce? Multiplying 12 months by 7.5 percent per month results in a total of 84 percent gains per year (without even re-investing any of the profits). Again, those totals also are ignoring the recent gains of over 500% in my other account.

Will I repeat those exact profit levels in future months? Actually, I plan to “stay in cash” during any time periods that my forecasting methods do not clearly identify a “good bet.” So, while I might have occasional months in the future as good as this one of October 2018, I expect them to be rare.

I have had more profitable months as an investor at least twice: in May of 2006 and October of 2002. However, market indicators are not usually SO easy to interpret as they were by late September of 2018.

Will I go in to detail about my forecasting methods? Actually, I would prefer to keep some of the details private.

However, more importantly for you, I can provide you the profits produced by my methods of forecasting and trading. The simplest way to do so is within your own private brokerage account (including an IRA) using a form that most brokerages call an “assignment of an authorized trader” (or a similar label). That is basically a “limited power of attorney” form that allows you to give me a dedicated login ID and password for executing whatever types of trades you authorize.

2) Times change.

To keep this brief, I will emphasize that you don’t need to understand any of the details about the fact that “times change.” Myself and MANY other published analysts do value some rather basic principles that we use to consistently forecast changes that produce huge profits for us and huge losses for mainstream investors.

We focus on statistics that mainstream investors not only tend to ignore, but sometimes even ridicule. Back in 2005 or 2006, I was sometimes startled by the anxious desperation of many mainstream investors to rationalize their dismissals of correlations that I considered simple and clear. Eventually, it is not a surprise to witness the latest “addictions” to the popular pre-existing biases.

Basically, if you’d like to read any of my publications starting in early 2003 that clearly predicted all of the major changes in the global economy that happened from 2005-2009, let me know. I can send you some links.

I can send you a publication from 2005 clearly showing that “the latest data” on real estate markets had already confirmed the forecasts of an eventual decline that I had been making for years. I can also send you a publication from early 2009 (within days prior to the rebound in US stocks) clearly forecasting that rebound.

I even have a video from late 2006 in which I directly reference the mortgage crisis that manifested several months later and led to the bankruptcy of several prominent financial institutions in the US and elsewhere. Here is a short section:

“When the credit market shifts, the real estate market shifts…. There is so much exposure amongst lenders into real estate [lending]… [that] when the real estate market declines… that actually greatly affects [mortgage lenders’] capacity to extend credit [as in more loans]. So… when their real estate notes [the mortgage debts owed to them] are looking less valuable… banks can collapse.”

In other words, instead of being desperately aggressive about extending new loans with unsustainable gimmicks like “1% down payments,” banks shift focus. They suddenly shift from lending out cash as fast as it comes in… to tightening their lending standards. Why? They get desperate to pay back the massive debts that THEY owe.

3) NAHB’s builder confidence index recently exceeded 2005 levels.

I’ll start with the chart showing that late 2017 levels were higher than the prior peak in 2005. Then, I’ll show some relevant correlations.

Also, I assume that you already are familiar with changes to your own local or regional market for construction and remodeling projects that manifested a little over 10 years ago. Today, I’m not going to focus on exactly why I expect the near future of US real estate markets to be much worse than that shift (and perhaps even as bad as what has been happening in Japan since 1990). For now though, let’s start with a single statistic that could cause us concern for something at least as bad in the US for contractors in general:

From 2005 to 2010, sales of NEW homes in the US fell nearly 80%. Although volume has more than doubled since 2010, it is down about 20% since the peak in late 2017. Further, there is a clear correlation between sales volume and NAHB’s index of builder confidence in the US housing market.

From 2005 to 2010, sales of USED homes in the US fell over 50%. Although volume rose by more than 50% since the 2010 low, it is down about 10% since the peak in late 2017. Further, there is once again a clear correlation between sales volume and NAHB’s index of builder confidence in the US housing market.

Finally, this next one is really the key chart. What do you notice about the black line and the blue line in 2005 & 2006? Do you see how the blue line peaks and falls about one year prior to the black line?

Also, do you see that the blue line not only recently exceeded the prior peak in 2005, but has been dropping for the first 3 quarters of 2018? What will happen next with the black line (which tracks PRICES of real estate in the US)?

That line is a weighted average including both average prices for used homes as well as average prices of new homes (which are currently around 10% of all residential purchases). Prices of USED homes are still rising. However, average prices of NEW home purchases in the US overall are actually down 3.5% from September of 2017 to September of 2017. Do you dare to guess when the last time was that prices of new homes in the US fell while prices of used homes rose?

4) US real estate markets are already weakening.

I will focus only on a few regions of the US that have done worse than most in the last year. In Southern California, sales of existing single-family homes are down 17.6% from a year ago. In the Northeast US, new home sales are down 51.3% from a year ago. For high-end residential real estate in Manhattan (over $10 million), sales volume is down 39% in the last year and prices are down 9% (so far).

As we saw in the charts above, drops in sales volume predictably leads to prices coming down. In other words, if sales volume continues to drop further and further, we can expect prices to follow.

Below is a chart of an index of the stock prices of the US housing sector. In 2005, I mentioned this index in a publication of mine saying that it’s decline from July of 2015 to September of that year (when I wrote that article) appeared to me to “validate” the forecasts I had been making of an eventual decline in US real estate lending, sales volume, and prices. (In the same article, I also published data from one specific region in the US where real estate markets had already significantly slowed down: Phoenix Arizona).

I won’t go on and on with this topic, although I will note that real estate markets have not just begun to weaken in the US, but in Canada as well as on several other continents. For many decades at least, the US economy has been debt-driven, rather than production-driven. Further, the US is not alone in that regard. As the next waves of global credit crisis accelerate in to a much bigger panic than that of 2007 (if my analysis is accurate), then the industry that I expect to be most affected by that decline is the construction industry.

It benefited the most from the expansion of the “credit bubble.” It will likely suffer the worst from a reversal.

Further, as the next global credit crisis accelerates, global consumption of fossil fuels may plunge (as it did in 2008). With the US once again leading the world in the extraction of crude oil, a major decline in global fuel consumption will potentially produce the most detriment to the economy of the US (relative to other countries). Besides the technology sector, the fossil fuel sector (in my assessment) has really been the only other sector in the US that has been competitive on a global scale. Alas, even the technology sector in the US is heavily-reliant on… what else would it be: borrowing.

5) Borrowing is what has been driving up real estate values.

In this October 17, 2018 press release, the Mortgage Bankers Association in the US published data in which they clearly list that they track interest rates for 5 different types of mortgages. For 4 out of those 5, interest rates have reached their highest levels since 2011.

https://www.mba.org/2018-press-releases/october/mortgage-applications-decline-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey-x240776

Here are some comment’s from a press release by the same organization from July of 2018:

“Mortgage refinance activity has declined through 2018 as rates have increased, reducing the incentive for borrowers to refinance…. MBA’s refinance index averaged 1,013 in June, the lowest monthly average since December 2000. The weekly index value dropped below 1,000 in three of the past six weeks, a level that it has not gone below since December 2000 as well.”

Source: https://www.mba.org/publications/insights/archive/mba-insights-archive/2018/mba-chart-of-the-week-refinance-index-and-30-year-fixed-rates

Here is a chart of the refinance index (in blue) and the average interest rate on 30 year mortgages in the US. Note that time after time in the last 18 years, the blue line has shot up just before a rise in the orange line:

That means that when homeowners rush to refinance at low rates, that increased demand for loans is precisely what DRIVES up rates. From all of 2008 to 2012, the blue line was above the 2,000 level (see left axis for the 2,000 level). In the latter portion of that period, the refinance index was above 4,000 for almost 12 straight months.

When has that happened before? Only once in the last two decades: 2002.

Those brief “booms” in refinancing are great for builders in the short-term. However, increased demand for refi loans is a big part of what drives up interest rates. Those rising interest rates eventually can trigger major declines in borrowing, leading to declines in sales volume. When sales volume plunges, what happens eventually to prices?

FYI, for those that are curious how the private Federal Reserve Bank alters interest rates for US lending markets, here is the short version of what you would find if you looked at many decades of data. They almost always change their rates to FOLLOW the activity of private borrowers and private lenders (including as reflected in the open-market interest rates for US treasury bonds).

In other words, when demand for loans rises (relative to supply), then loans in general get more expensive (as in interest rates increase). Then, in RESPONSE to that, the Federal Reserve will alter the lending rates that they charge when lending money to banks (AKA the “prime rate”).

6) The final reason to diversify away from the construction industry is because I recommend it.

When I say “diversify away from” it, I simply mean to begin investing a portion of your net worth toward opportunities that (based on obvious statistical correlations) have a better potential for future profit than the construction industry in the US currently does. As I noted above, I can provide you access to the kinds of the profits that I have been producing with my methods of forecasting and investing. (Again, the profits since 10/3 have been, for each of the two strategies I have used, over 500% and exactly 7.5%.)

While I have refined my methods in the last 16 years, even the most obvious forecasts that I began making in 2003 have consistently preceded every major change in global markets since then: the shifts in credit markets worldwide, the shifts in fuel prices worldwide, and the shifts in overall stock prices worldwide. While I did not mention it until now, a portion of my recent profits were from trading commodities, not just “shorting” US stocks.

So, I’m not fixated on a specific market. I am not “emotionally invested” in any particular market (or forecast). Again, why didn’t I invest 100% of my assets in to the strategies that generated profits of over 500% in the last few weeks? Because I knew that I was only dealing with a very high probability of profit from that strategy, not absolute certainty.

I am certainly continuing to generate leads for construction and remodeling projects as well. I’m simply shifting my focus to diversify away from the construction industry to invest in opportunities that I perceive to be far more lucrative and safe. For more information on how you can benefit from my analysis and profitable trades, contact me today.

http://allycm.com

Economic crisis: great for prudent traders & awful for real estate investors

April 19, 2018

A friend recently posted this on facebook:

A couple people have told me that the market is going to collapse in a year or so, at least the housing market. I’m wondering if anyone has any thoughts or professional opinions about this?

I replied (and then a short private exchange began). Here was my public reply:

A lot of statistics and data indicate the potential for a major downturn in global credit markets, which tends to “blow out” prices in markets like stocks, real estate, and even gold and gasoline etc….

In late 2005, I published this article forecasting a major downturn in the global economy including in stock prices. My favorite section is me “tearing apart” the recent analysis of a PhD who was the chief investment strategist of Wells Fargo. He was “very wrong,” and yet despite his apparent incompetence remained in that job for another decade at least (as of the last time I checked).

https://jrfibonacci.wordpress.com/2015/10/31/another-investment-forecast-of-mine-from-late-2015/

Starting in early 2003, I published forecasts of the emerging real estate decline (which started in the 1990s in Japan and had spread to Europe by 2003). By mid-2005, I published a few “confirmation” articles showing that two regional markets in the US were already starting the crash that eventually spread throughout almost the entire US. Those two regions were Phoenix and Las Vegas.

Expanding beyond the topic of real estate, in 2004, my publications focused on global oil markets as a primary trigger that would eventually cause a major shift in the global economy. Within a few years, it cost over $11 to get a gallon of gasoline in parts of the UK and Germany. And soon, the “dominoes” that I said would fall in sequence did in fact fall just as I had proposed.

https://jrfibonacci.wordpress.com/2011/01/05/the-dominoil-effect/

So those were my public comments, which that facebook friend (who I will call “FBF”) and a few others so far have “liked.” Here is the private exchange that followed (with slight censoring of her comments).

FBF wrote:

Hello, honored to have such an intelligent friend on Facebook!

If you are ready and willing, I would like to ask a little bit of advice.

JR replied with a “thumbs up.”

FBF continued:

OK then I will ask… I own a house in [a particular location] where lots of yuppies like to move… It’s a rental property….

The real estate prices are consistently going up at a very fast rate. I dislike being a landlord, but I can tolerate it.

A bunch of people have told me that I should sell my house this spring due to the bubble probably bursting soon. Others have told me that one should hold onto real estate during economic crisis is… Do you have any suggestions? [She then references her other income from her profession.]

JR replied:

Okay! First, I recommend targeting strategies with smooth, stable gains- ideally, with some calculated diversification.

For instance, a couple of months ago, I wrote a short report on two unrelated systems that have been producing annualized gains of 110% and 220%.

https://jrfibonacci.wordpress.com/2018/02/24/2-investing-systems-producing-annual-gains-of-220-and-110/

Next, my trading analysis will TARGET the forecasting of economic crisis because a crisis will present the most lucrative opportunities BY FAR.

Huge amounts of wealth transfer very rapidly in a crash. In a manic bubble, the transfer of wealth toward prudent investors will generally be much much slower, since so many people will be on the “receiving ends” of benefiting from the bubble.

Last, as for the stability of real estate, in a deflating of credit markets (which is the main kind of economic crisis), it is far better to own cash during a deflation than to own real estate. A few examples include the crash of Japan’s real estate market in the 1990s (which almost 30 years later has still not recovered), plus Phoenix, where prices rapidly fell [almost] 50% on average, and Las Vegas where prices rapidly fell 60%.

This image from early 2012 shows the rapid 60% price decline in Las Vegas: https://jrfibonacci.files.wordpress.com/2012/05/re-prices-las-vegas.png?w=450&h=248

Here is the same timeframe for the 48% decline in the Phoenix area:

https://jrfibonacci.files.wordpress.com/2012/05/re-prices-phoenix.png?w=450&h=259

FBF replied:

with a graphic icon saying “thank u” and a cute teddy bear.

JR continued:

So, those are my main “summary comments” for you. Also, if your main “investing strategy” is concentrated in a single faraway unit of real estate, that could be very bad during a deflation. (By the way, I was briefly a landlord for a home in [a certain place familiar to FBF] and that “did not go very well.”)

I could say more about WHY owning real estate can be SO bad during a major deflation, but for sake of brevity, I will simply say “other things would be much better and why not focus on them instead?”

[FBF replied with a thumbs up]

Also, to be clear, I am sharing this info with you with the expectation that you will be open to using my services for wealth management. I do not charge anything except a portion of the gains (as in no administrative fees or management fees and generally no set-up fees). My main question for you now is “how soon would like for us to take a few minutes to explore the details?”

If you’d like to read more at any time, here are my “official” promotional pages, which are entirely optional for you to read:

http://allycm.com/services-for-investors.php

 

On condemnations of people who “hate us for being alive”

March 1, 2018

R.M. (Not quite the right initials) shared this image / meme:

(Note that the below exchange contains some “jargon,” as in words and phrases that are being used in a somewhat unusual way … ways which may seem weird or even cryptic to most readers, but that have very specific meanings to some people in the interaction.)

 

K.C. wrote:

Personally I can’t stand this current generation AS A WHOLE but I do agree with them something needs to be done. I am a gun owner but it is absolutely unacceptable to have shootouts or just a flat out ambush in school. These kids absolutely have the right to go to school and not fear for their lives. On that I support them.

 

J.R. wrote:

If someone begins with the idea that any questioning of them or their statements is by default “hate,” then perhaps they have no interest in an exchange of experiences or ideas.

 

 

R.M. wrote:

Really? Have you been following what has been happening? What the people who disagree with these students have actually been saying and doing? Listening is not about ethereal and esoteric statements from the stands.

 

 

J.R. wrote:

If there is a motivation to find one or more events to classify as “hateful,” then that can be done. Then, those cases can be focused on exclusively.

Do I know what “everyone” has said or done? No, and neither do you.

If you do not want to know what I have said or might say, I understand and accept that. Listening is a “current-moment phenomenon”, like it is either right here in this exchange or not.

 

 

R.M. wrote:

 

J R, where did I use the word “everyone”? These students are on the court taking on an issue where their opposition is saying and doing things that would likely be equated to hate.

And I assert that everything is a current moment phenomenon. Including memories of the past and predictions of the future.

 

J.R. wrote:

You did not use the word everyone until I did, right? So, obviously I was not quoting you.

I used quotation marks with the intention to suggest that sweeping generalizations (like the word “everyone”) are generally imprecise. If that was not clear to you already, so be it.

So, if it is useful in the promotion of your selected cause to focus on a portion of “our opposition” that is the easiest for you to equate with hate, I respect that position. I also respect the existence of **upsets and rackets and blind spots** (etc).   [note- that was some of the jargon right there, though the basic idea here is probably rather clear]

 

If I presume that “you clearly hate me,” then that could alter how I relate to your words. I might find evidence to support my position “everywhere.”

 

R.M. wrote:

J R … thank you for your engagement with this post that I shared that was created by someone else. I say that although I have moments of anger that could be described as BEING hateful, they pass quickly and I have created for myself that I hate no one. I also say that hate is a soul killer of those who say or have a hateful way of being.

 

Next, I do not understand what you’re saying. I respect it, I just don’t understand. Probably nothing to do with you (and all in how your words are occuring to me).

That’s it, that’s all I’m saying. I’m not generalizing and referring to some nebulus “everyone”. I am talking about, and as I suspect she is also, a small group of people many would describe as fanatical about guns.

What I see the meme is intending to say (how it occurs to me), is that she is talking about the people who have a very strong position and POV that is in support of guns and that they have said things and taken actions that would occur to most people as being hateful.

 

 

J.R. wrote:

You’re welcome. The kind of grief / grievance that I associate with “they hate us for being alive… for speaking” is quite extreme.

Can I respect and appreciate extremes of grief? Sure.

Someone can say that I hate them for being alive and I might presume that “it is simply the emotion talking- maybe some hatred- definitely some grief.” However, the extremes of someone’s emotion or passion does not establish much about their comprehension of related issues.

As for fanaticism, I might describe many people as fanatical about guns- with a variety of very different positions all presented in a way that I might call fanatical. Again, I can respect that.

 


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