alert and update on long-term market forecasting
[This is copied and pasted from a broadcast email that I sent in August 2009.]
I just computed the (approximate) gains from the forecast that I made in early March (which I sent almost all of you in the email titled “quick and easy 70% gains in BGU since 2/10/09″ and which is posted here: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/redpill_info/message/592). I declared that forecast complete as of last week (as a brief footnote in the less-widely broadcast email on 8/19 titled “a prophecy,” which is posted here: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/redpill_info/message/655).
So, I just noticed that my latest stock pick is now about a 300% gain in under 6 months: http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=fas&sid=0&o_symb=fas&freq=1&time=7
(Notice that there was a potential for a gain of 700% since March, but I am intentionally focusing here on only the majority of price movement of the lowest-risk transitions, not the precise reversals, so even a 6-month gain of only 250% or 200% ETC would be quite welcome.)
I would actually have balanced that ETF (called FAS) at least a bit with this other broader ETF, which has only gone up about 200% in that time:
By the way, the coming decline will have much faster, larger opportunity. This floating rebound of the last 5 months or so is nothing like what is coming (which will also go in the opposite direction). Note that I am not saying that the decline has already started, but that it is due as of now with the extreme highs in confidence (higher confidence than the all-time highs of 2008) and, according to my projection, this next wave of sudden decline is functionally inevitable- not simply a matter of politics, by the way). So, in regard to multi-month positioning, I am already comfortable exiting FAS (and BGU) and entering FAZ (and BGZ)- in fact in one account I manage, I had already entered FAZ before 8/19.
Even though this recent “papertrading” gain of 300% and the faster 70% gain just prior to that did fit my forecasts, I did
not trade them as such (they were just hypothetical trades “on paper”). Instead, I traded for my own subsistence, which meant (for me) generally ignoring the easy long-term gains in order to gamble on positions that could make me personally a few hundred dollars THIS WEEK (whenever “this week” was). When trading with only a few thousand dollars for a gain of at least a few hundred dollars within week or two, the potential risk is high (along with the potential reward).
So, with the easy, low-risk, one-month gain of 70% and the 5.5 month gain of about 300%, here is what would have happened to an initial investment of $10,000 in the last half year or so:
3/3/09: $17,000 (70% gain)
8/19/09: $68,000 (a 300% gain- or quadrupling- on top of the initial 70% gain).
for a total gain in about 6 months of about 580%. If that was $100,000, the balance (without adding any principal or removing any proceeds) would thus be about $680,000. For amounts much higher than that, the gains would actually be slightly lower by percentage, as I would diversify to maintain liquidity.
Yes, I did also forecast the sharp stock market decline leading in to February 2009 as well as several long-term reversals since my first publication in early 2003. However, many of you did not receive advance notice of them, as you have in this case. I had not been doing long-term trading until recently, but only daytrading, with which I produced the 400% gains in May of 2005, but with which I did not produce consistent gains in general, as I was consistently targeting gains approaching those of May 2005 (i.e., as I said before, at least a few hundred dollars worth for me “this week.”)
In summary, with a total of exactly two trades, here was the opportunity for a gain of 580% in about 6 months. In the coming months, I expect a sharp acceleration in opportunity: “the big one” that I have been referencing since early 2003. Again, the decline of last year was not “it.” It was just a hint- a tipping
of the toe into the water. What is coming may be, according to my projections, also the end of business as usual, politics as usual, and even life as usual in the industrialized world. Cheers!
- How The FAZ-Mobile Promises To Lose 99.6% Of Your Money Even If The Market Crashes By 60% (zerohedge.com)
- Is the Dumb Money Forecasting a Crash? (fool.com)
- FAZ: ETF Outflow Alert (forbes.com)
- Backing Out Of Overbought Bank Stocks (forbes.com)
- Stocks Set to Pullback (moneymanager.com)
- Municipal Bond ETF Alert: Get out of MUB (learnbonds.com)
- What is a bond ETF? (learnbonds.com)
- Treasury Bonds Rise on Europe Fear, Demand (bondmoves.com)
- Playing a move up for the Dow (business.financialpost.com)
- Notable ETF Outflow Detected – FAZ (forbes.com)
- Global Markets Overview – 03/01/2012 (ibtimes.com)
- Dion’s Wednesday ETF Winners and Losers (thestreet.com)
- Weekly Economic Update December 26, 2011 (statlerfinancial.wordpress.com)
- Weekly Economic Update March 12, 2012 (statlerfinancial.wordpress.com)
- Economists see 10% gain in U.S. home prices (lansner.ocregister.com)
- Weekly Economic Update February 6, 2012 (statlerfinancial.wordpress.com)
- Weekly Economic Update March 5, 2012 (statlerfinancial.wordpress.com)
- Weekly Economic Update March 19, 2012 (statlerfinancial.wordpress.com)
- Despite promising first quarter, outlook for equities cautious (theglobeandmail.com)
- How To Interpret Market Forecasts (community.tradeking.com)
- Weekly Economic Update January 30, 2012 (statlerfinancial.wordpress.com)