Who predicted what reversed the growth of Phoenix, Las Vegas, Greece, and Ireland, etc?

Who predicted what reversed the growth of Phoenix, Las Vegas, Greece, and Ireland, etc?

how many dollars

The key question from the 2004 publication: “…The Real US Deficit: OIL?” was this: “How many dollars will it cost to buy a gallon of gasoline next year (2005)?”

In 2003, I published warnings of an emerging global credit crisis what would bring down real estate prices in particular as well as reduce stock prices and overall economic activity (spending and borrowing). In 2004, I specified that rising fuel prices would be the specific trigger of a wave of changing habits of borrowing and spending. I also explained then why the long-term trend of fuel prices had reversed in 1999, why that rise of fuel prices could soon accelerate dramatically (which was widely recognized by 2008), and what effect such a spike in fuel prices would have in various places depending on whether that particular area was energy-rich or energy-scarce.

First, what predictable effect would the spike in fuel prices have on oil-rich regions like Alaska and Alberta? In recent years, oil-rich Alaska and Alberta have predictably continued to thrive, even while other energy-importing states in the US and other provinces in Canada have been predictably experiencing tremendous declines in economic activity and thus tax revenues, resulting predictably in downgrades in the credit-worthiness (financial stability) of the government of many states and provinces.

During the years of 2000-2008, Alaska GDP grew at an annual rate of 7.4%….” By 2010, it was the #2 state in the US for GDP per capita and it was still the only state to pay it’s residents a dividend to reward them for living there instead of somewhere else (over $3,000 per year).

http://econpost.com/alaskaeconomy/alaska-gdp-size-rank

So, as oil prices rose over 1100% from 1999 to 2008, oil-rich places like Alaska, Alberta and many OPEC nations would experience a huge trade surplus. In contrast, energy-scarce places like Japan, Greece, Ireland, Phoenix, and Las Vegas would experience a huge wave of economic conservatism.

English: Vector image of the Las Vegas sign. P...

English: Vector image of the Las Vegas sign. Português: Imagems vectorial da placa de Las Vegas. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Once the first wave of conservatism resulted in a decline in global energy consumption, energy prices sharply fell (in 2008). However, any forecaster who already understood the simple geology and simple economics behind the rise of fuel prices which started in 1999 would have also known that the change in behavior arising by 2008 was just the first wave of an emerging revolution in values and behaviors.

In fact, by mid-2005, behavior had already changed in the most energy-scarce areas (the sprawling desert suburbs). Since I was expecting such a change, I reported it within a few months as the predictable first indications of the emerging shift in the US.

May 15: Las Vegas, Nevada is founded with auct...

“Before”: Las Vegas, Nevada . (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Downtown Las Vegas, Nevada and Red Rock Canyon...

“After:” a recent picture of downtown Las Vegas, Nevada and Red Rock Canyon behind, seen from Frenchman Mountain (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Prior to mid-2005, there had been a trend of huge economic growth in Phoenix and Las Vegas throughout the 20th century due to advancing technology and plummeting energy costs. As air conditioning for buildings and automobiles became more and more economical, the barren wastelands of Las Vegas and Phoenix had first become popular vacation destinations and then popular places to live, even during the intense summer heat.

By mid-2005, that trend was changing. As global energy prices spiked, the cost rose sharply of long commutes in 115 degree weather (with the auto AC cranked up, thus using far more gasoline than in the winter) and so did the cost of summer electricity bills, which even surpassed the monthly mortgage payment in some cases. Rather than moving further out in to the suburbs and getting bigger and bigger homes, people predictably started moving closer to the urban hub and in to smaller and smaller homes which reduced total energy costs.

Within a few years, most of the US (except for Alaska of course) had similar issues to a lesser degree: more spending on fuel and less spending on most everything else: construction, stock market investing, education, entertainment, and so on. The same shifts had already been evident in much of Europe starting in 1999 and in Japan starting at the end of 1989.

japan 21 years

As the waves of economic conservatism flow across Japan and Europe and the US, consumers and owners of businesses predictably get more and more selective about how they spend their money, what sources they value as relevant and trustworthy and authoritative, and how much attention to put on personal responsibility after the decades of trends toward relying presumptively on distant mega-corporations, government bureaucracies, mainstream media empires, and even mainstream religious institutions. Who has promoted relevant adaptions and who has encouraged naivete, blame, rage and hysteria?

angry alex jones

Did the mainstream media warn you of these issues or entice you to take actions that resulted in disappointment and then incite blame for the results you created with your choices? Did mainstream educational institutions prepare you? Did mainstream religious institutions prepare you? Did governments warn you of these issues or encourage you to be naively confident?

Many of those institutions are declining in authority. In contrast, certain individuals and networks are distinctive in their newly established relevance and leadership.

bush obama

Many people may experience fear upon recognizing the simplicity of what is emerging. Some of them will respond to the fear with courage and responsibility. Others will attempt to repress the fear or project it by blaming some isolated group of villains (whether vilifying the scapegoats presented by the media or directly vilifying the corporate media and those who rule it). They may also cling to some optimism naively or even hysterically, which again may be encouraged by some institutions.

Those institutions are serving their purpose. They are distracting those who are easily distracted. They are sorting those who are ready and willing to be responsible from those who prefer the complacent luxury of another frightened blame and of another desperate hope.

While I used to think of Alex Jones and David Icke and David Wilcock and even Jon Stewart as admirable and relevant, I now assert that, to the extent that they fan the flames of hysteria and divisiveness, they simply distract those who are easily distracted. Again, that may be their entire purpose. I admit that George Carlin and Bill Hicks were witty and bold, but there are other valuable qualities that may be a higher priority. I prefer Alan Watts or Robert Anton Wilson.

If you are open to new results, then you might explore new actions and new guidance. If you recognize that you might value the guidance of one of the people who predicted the changes of recent years and recommended the actions that would have entirely avoided loss and produced enormous benefits, let me know.

opec vs non opec

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_GDP

http://www.adn.com/2011/10/26/2139380/alaska-had-49-billion-economy.html

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